Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (71%). 9 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

AFC Bournemouth vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 1.5

9 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Under (69%) · Under at 30¢ · $11K held · ended Oct 31

Over71¢Under29¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 69%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.6K

Combined PnL

$390.5

Smart Money Entry

30.6¢ → 29.5¢

-4% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 30%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 13 top traders (69%)Underdog side (market favors Over 71%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over71%

Under30%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under9 traders

Total Value$4.3K

Total Shares12,719

Combined PnL+$407.5

Over4 traders

Total Value$156.86

Total Shares235

Combined PnL-$17

Under — 69%Over — 31%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 70.1¢	$5.9K	$5.7K	-$264.04	54% 56611-48781 (105392)
└ Over leg	Overavg 70.1¢	$4.8K	$4.5K	-$278.28
└ Under leg	Underavg 33.6¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$14.24
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Underavg 29.9¢	$2.7K	$3.1K	+$380.35	59% 45819-32178 (77997)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Underavg 37.4¢	$845.41	$767.82	-$77.59	50% 33398-32968 (66366)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Underavg 25.4¢	$290.38	$359.3	+$68.93	55% 2909-2340 (5249)
└ Under leg	Underavg 25.4¢	$145.38	$194.3	+$48.93
└ Over leg	Overavg 58¢	$145	$165	+$20
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Underavg 23.7¢	$193.8	$277.96	+$84.17	50% 25104-24842 (49946)
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Overavg 78¢	$107	$100	-$7	49% 7982-8322 (16304)
└ Over leg	Overavg 78¢	$78	$66	-$12
└ Under leg	Underavg 29¢	$29	$34	+$5
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Overavg 76¢	$94.54	$82.1	-$12.44	65% 1708-928 (2636)
0xheavy888<$100	Overavg 74.6¢	$76.5	$66	-$10.5	55% 7125-5714 (12839)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Underavg 23.4¢	$43.37	$62.95	+$1.99	53% 15956-14132 (30088)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 27.8¢	$23.57	$28.82	+$5.25	53% 4646-4187 (8833)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 25¢	$20	$27.2	+$7.2	58% 28707-21186 (49893)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Underavg 23¢	$16.45	$24.31	+$0.36	39% 419-667 (1086)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 23¢	$10.38	$15.34	+$4.96	57% 13809-10582 (24391)
RO Rocky31<$100	Overavg 85¢	$56.34	$5.41	+$5.86	74% 1592-569 (2161)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Overavg 75¢	$3.27	$3.35	+$0.08	48% 2396-2627 (5023)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Underavg 18¢	$0.92	$1.73	+$0.82	50% 10864-10681 (21545)

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$5,941.19

Value

$5.7K

PnL

-$264.04

Record

54%

56611-48781 (105392)

Both legs:

Over$4,779.4870.1¢-$278.28

Under$1,161.7133.6¢+$14.24

UpTheBluesCTR

Under

Invested

$2,737.98

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$380.35

Record

59%

45819-32178 (77997)

SnakeBallCTR

Under

Invested

$845.41

Value

$767.82

PnL

-$77.59

Record

50%

33398-32968 (66366)

Anon455ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$290.38

Value

$359.3

PnL

+$68.93

Record

55%

2909-2340 (5249)

Both legs:

Under$145.3825.4¢+$48.93

Over$14558¢+$20

GoalLineGhostCTR

Under

Invested

$193.8

Value

$277.96

PnL

+$84.17

Record

50%

25104-24842 (49946)

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Over

Invested

$107

Value

$100

PnL

-$7

Record

49%

7982-8322 (16304)

Both legs:

Invested

$94.54

Value

$82.1

PnL

-$12.44

Record

65%

1708-928 (2636)

0xheavy888<$100

Over

Invested

$76.5

Value

$66

PnL

-$10.5

Record

55%

7125-5714 (12839)

CannaeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$43.37

Value

$62.95

PnL

+$1.99

Record

53%

15956-14132 (30088)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$23.57

Value

$28.82

PnL

+$5.25

Record

53%

4646-4187 (8833)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$20

Value

$27.2

PnL

+$7.2

Record

58%

28707-21186 (49893)

OddstormCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$16.45

Value

$24.31

PnL

+$0.36

Record

39%

419-667 (1086)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$10.38

Value

$15.34

PnL

+$4.96

Record

57%

13809-10582 (24391)

Rocky31<$100

Over

Invested

$56.34

Value

$5.41

PnL

+$5.86

Record

74%

1592-569 (2161)

ameisgoat11<$100

Over

Invested

$3.27

Value

$3.35

PnL

+$0.08

Record

48%

2396-2627 (5023)

fooooolCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.92

Value

$1.73

PnL

+$0.82

Record

50%

10864-10681 (21545)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 30%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 13 top traders (69%)Underdog side (market favors Over 71%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance31.6%

29.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$216.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

316.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.