AFC Bournemouth vs. Leeds United FC: AFC Bournemouth O/U 1.5

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (57%) · Under at 54¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 31

Over46¢Under54¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 57%

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

-$15.3

Smart Money Entry

52.5¢ → 54¢

+3% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 54%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over46%

Under54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$943.29

Total Shares1,839

Combined PnL-$21.36

Over3 traders

Total Value$100.32

Total Shares205

Combined PnL+$6.06

Under — 57%Over — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (6 on Under) disagree here.

whaleOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 52.3¢	$813.87	$793.51	-$20.37	50% 33398-32968 (66366)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 47.2¢	$85.43	$88.69	+$3.26	49% 7982-8322 (16304)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 53¢	$65.72	$66.96	+$1.24	58% 28707-21186 (49893)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Underavg 54.5¢	$59.95	$56.1	-$3.85	59% 45819-32178 (77997)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 51.2¢	$31.79	$26.72	+$1.62	57% 13809-10582 (24391)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Overavg 38¢	$7.6	$9.8	+$2.2	50% 10864-10681 (21545)
RN1CTR<$100	Overavg 33¢	$1.23	$1.83	+$0.6	54% 56611-48781 (105392)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$813.87

Value

$793.51

PnL

-$20.37

Record

50%

33398-32968 (66366)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$85.43

Value

$88.69

PnL

+$3.26

Record

49%

7982-8322 (16304)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$65.72

Value

$66.96

PnL

+$1.24

Record

58%

28707-21186 (49893)

UpTheBlues<$100

Under

Invested

$59.95

Value

$56.1

PnL

-$3.85

Record

59%

45819-32178 (77997)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$31.79

Value

$26.72

PnL

+$1.62

Record

57%

13809-10582 (24391)

fooooolCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$7.6

Value

$9.8

PnL

+$2.2

Record

50%

10864-10681 (21545)

RN1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.23

Value

$1.83

PnL

+$0.6

Record

54%

56611-48781 (105392)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 54%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (6 on Under) disagree here.

whaleOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.2%

54.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$77.82

Max Loss

-$100.00

177.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.