Spread: AFC Bournemouth (-1.5)
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Leeds United FC (71%) · Leeds United FC at 70¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Leeds United FC
7
Leeds United FC 71%
$1.8K
-$12.1
73.9¢ → 69.5¢
-6% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralLeeds United FC at 70%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Leeds United FCavg 74.8¢ | $1.1K | $988.79 | -$65.88 | 50% 25104-24842 (49946) |
 0xheavy888 | Leeds United FCavg 76¢ | $256 | $278 | +$22 | 55% 7125-5714 (12839) |
CA Cannae | Leeds United FCavg 75.1¢ | $264.19 | $244.5 | +$4.94 | 53% 15956-14132 (30088) |
SA Saber-greed | Leeds United FCavg 65¢ | $189.16 | $202.26 | +$13.1 | 59% 2556-1783 (4339) |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | AFC Bournemouthavg 35¢ | $46.62 | $40.63 | -$5.99 | 50% 10864-10681 (21545) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | AFC Bournemouthavg 9.3¢ | $8.57 | $28.09 | +$19.52 | 49% 7982-8322 (16304) |
LI Lilybaeum<$100 | Leeds United FCavg 61¢ | $1.56 | $1.78 | +$0.22 | 62% 13708-8572 (22280) |
Invested
$1,054.67
Value
$988.79
PnL
-$65.88
Record
50%
25104-24842 (49946)
0xheavy888Invested
$256
Value
$278
PnL
+$22
Record
55%
7125-5714 (12839)
Invested
$264.19
Value
$244.5
PnL
+$4.94
Record
53%
15956-14132 (30088)
Invested
$189.16
Value
$202.26
PnL
+$13.1
Record
59%
2556-1783 (4339)
Invested
$46.62
Value
$40.63
PnL
-$5.99
Record
50%
10864-10681 (21545)
Invested
$8.57
Value
$28.09
PnL
+$19.52
Record
49%
7982-8322 (16304)
Invested
$1.56
Value
$1.78
PnL
+$0.22
Record
62%
13708-8572 (22280)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.