Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-10-31?

15 of 24 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 94¢ · $32K held · ended Oct 31

Yes7¢No93¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Consensus Traders

No 63%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$32.3K

Combined PnL

-$602.84

Smart Money Entry

80¢ → 93.5¢

+17% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 94%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

15 of 24 top traders (63%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes7%

No94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No15 traders

Total Value$26.0K

Total Shares31,502

Combined PnL-$300.82

Yes9 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares10,707

Combined PnL-$302.02

No — 63%Yes — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BE beautifulobsession	Noavg 76¢	$10.0K	$9.9K	-$65.79	67% 80-39 (119)
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 89.1¢	$7.7K	$7.9K	+$224.11	59% 45816-32172 (77988)
SB sbimbg	Noavg 76¢	$4.6K	$4.3K	-$240	70% 3149-1361 (4510)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Yesavg 24¢	$3.2K	$3.2K	+$53.84	55% 2909-2339 (5248)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 24¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	+$47.91
└ No leg	Noavg 75¢	$888.93	$894.86	+$5.93
oieshfn345	Noavg 80.1¢	$2.9K	$2.6K	-$296.72	57% 1719-1292 (3011)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$924.85	$1.2K	+$234.25	50% 25098-24836 (49934)
└ No leg	Noavg 73.7¢	$621.63	$780.08	+$158.45
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 25¢	$1.3K	$379.02	+$75.8
KW kwzoCTR	Yesavg 27.9¢	$450	$435.11	-$14.89	46% 69-80 (149)
TO torta.tech	Noavg 72¢	$403.2	$408.8	+$5.6	63% 8134-4874 (13008)
CA CannaeCTR	Yesavg 24¢	$400.23	$408.57	+$8.34	53% 15955-14130 (30085)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Yesavg 25¢	$390.1	$382.4	-$7.7	51% 1446-1390 (2836)
LI Lilybaeum	Noavg 81.6¢	$281.86	$319.38	+$37.52	62% 13707-8571 (22278)
RN1CTR	Yesavg 9¢	$270.54	$285.57	+$15.03	54% 56601-48769 (105370)
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 24¢	$480	$170	-$310	58% 41916-30432 (72348)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Noavg 85.4¢	$156.64	$160.1	+$3.46	52% 13785-12588 (26373)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 80.8¢	$124.83	$146.07	+$21.23	50% 33398-32968 (66366)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Yesavg 26¢	$118.56	$127.68	+$9.12	74% 6673-2396 (9069)
FO foooool	Noavg 90¢	$101.2	$100.93	-$0.27	50% 10864-10681 (21545)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Yesavg 24¢	$96	$98	+$2	55% 7124-5713 (12837)
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191<$100	Noavg 65¢	$32.5	$37.75	+$5.25	47% 4570-5075 (9645)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Noavg 73¢	$13.52	$16.94	+$3.43	49% 12639-13031 (25670)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 74.6¢	$8.59	$10.42	+$1.83	53% 4633-4164 (8797)
BE Betziko<$100	Noavg 90¢	$4.5	$4.53	+$0.03	54% 6279-5320 (11599)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100	Noavg 75¢	$12.68	$2.26	-$0.48	53% 2174-1925 (4099)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 24¢	$7.13	$2.23	-$4.9	57% 13805-10579 (24384)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Yesavg 11¢	$0.7	$1.67	+$0.98	49% 7973-8309 (16282)

beautifulobsession

Invested

$10,000

Value

$9.9K

PnL

-$65.79

Record

67%

80-39 (119)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$7,674.78

Value

$7.9K

PnL

+$224.11

Record

59%

45816-32172 (77988)

sbimbg

Invested

$4,560

Value

$4.3K

PnL

-$240

Record

70%

3149-1361 (4510)

Anon455ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$3,188.78

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$53.84

Record

55%

2909-2339 (5248)

Both legs:

Yes$2,299.8524¢+$47.91

No$888.9375¢+$5.93

oieshfn345

Invested

$2,889.92

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$296.72

Record

57%

1719-1292 (3011)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$924.85

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$234.25

Record

50%

25098-24836 (49934)

Both legs:

No$621.6373.7¢+$158.45

Yes$1,263.4225¢+$75.8

kwzoCTR

Yes

Invested

$450

Value

$435.11

PnL

-$14.89

Record

46%

69-80 (149)

torta.tech

Invested

$403.2

Value

$408.8

PnL

+$5.6

Record

63%

8134-4874 (13008)

CannaeCTR

Yes

Invested

$400.23

Value

$408.57

PnL

+$8.34

Record

53%

15955-14130 (30085)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Yes

Invested

$390.1

Value

$382.4

PnL

-$7.7

Record

51%

1446-1390 (2836)

Lilybaeum

Invested

$281.86

Value

$319.38

PnL

+$37.52

Record

62%

13707-8571 (22278)

RN1CTR

Yes

Invested

$270.54

Value

$285.57

PnL

+$15.03

Record

54%

56601-48769 (105370)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$480

Value

$170

PnL

-$310

Record

58%

41916-30432 (72348)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Invested

$156.64

Value

$160.1

PnL

+$3.46

Record

52%

13785-12588 (26373)

SnakeBall

Invested

$124.83

Value

$146.07

PnL

+$21.23

Record

50%

33398-32968 (66366)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Yes

Invested

$118.56

Value

$127.68

PnL

+$9.12

Record

74%

6673-2396 (9069)

foooool

Invested

$101.2

Value

$100.93

PnL

-$0.27

Record

50%

10864-10681 (21545)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$96

Value

$98

PnL

+$2

Record

55%

7124-5713 (12837)

0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191<$100

Invested

$32.5

Value

$37.75

PnL

+$5.25

Record

47%

4570-5075 (9645)

LuckyLoo<$100

Invested

$13.52

Value

$16.94

PnL

+$3.43

Record

49%

12639-13031 (25670)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$8.59

Value

$10.42

PnL

+$1.83

Record

53%

4633-4164 (8797)

Betziko<$100

Invested

$4.5

Value

$4.53

PnL

+$0.03

Record

54%

6279-5320 (11599)

hedgevaultmainnet1<$100

Invested

$12.68

Value

$2.26

PnL

-$0.48

Record

53%

2174-1925 (4099)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.13

Value

$2.23

PnL

-$4.9

Record

57%

13805-10579 (24384)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.7

Value

$1.67

PnL

+$0.98

Record

49%

7973-8309 (16282)

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 94%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

15 of 24 top traders (63%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.8%

93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.