Will AFC Bournemouth vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw?

10 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold No (53%) · No at 79¢ · $35K held · ended Oct 31

Yes22¢No78¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 53%

Total Value

$35.0K

Combined PnL

$903.59

Smart Money Entry

69.7¢ → 78.5¢

+13% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 79%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 19 top traders (53%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes22%

No79%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes9 traders

Total Value$14.2K

Total Shares50,352

Combined PnL$-1.0K

No10 traders

Total Value$20.8K

Total Shares27,121

Combined PnL+$1.9K

Yes — 47%No — 53%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186CTR	Yesavg 30.3¢	$14.0K	$13.2K	-$812.57	46% 437-514 (951)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 69.8¢	$9.0K	$10.1K	+$1.1K	50% 25098-24836 (49934)
RN1	Noavg 69.5¢	$6.4K	$7.2K	+$743.39	54% 56601-48769 (105370)
LI Lilybaeum	Noavg 69.6¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$28.65	62% 13707-8571 (22278)
oieshfn345	Noavg 69¢	$692.34	$707.41	+$15.07	57% 1719-1292 (3011)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Yesavg 28.1¢	$862.84	$660.43	-$202.42	59% 45816-32172 (77988)
AN AnonymousUsername	Noavg 71¢	$223.99	$296.41	+$2.09	74% 6673-2396 (9069)
KW kwzoCTR	Yesavg 33.8¢	$204.49	$196.59	-$7.9	46% 69-80 (149)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Noavg 68.8¢	$88.3	$86.59	-$1.71	52% 13785-12588 (26373)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Yesavg 24¢	$46.41	$64.66	+$18.25	58% 18658-13715 (32373)
BE Betziko<$100	Noavg 70.9¢	$67.35	$64.12	-$3.22	54% 6279-5320 (11599)
FO foooool<$100	Noavg 77¢	$49.28	$49.6	+$0.32	50% 10864-10681 (21545)
TO torta.tech<$100	Noavg 77¢	$30.8	$30.6	-$0.2	63% 8134-4874 (13008)
CA Cannae<$100	Noavg 72¢	$12.24	$12.07	-$0.17	53% 15955-14130 (30085)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$5.38	$5.28	-$0.1	49% 19161-19553 (38714)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 30.3¢	$6.97	$5.18	-$1.8	53% 4633-4164 (8797)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$3.72	$3.79	+$0.07	39% 418-667 (1085)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$2.41	$2.41	+$0.04	53% 2174-1925 (4099)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 30¢	$2.14	$1.54	-$0.61	50% 33398-32968 (66366)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186CTR

Yes

Invested

$14,039.74

Value

$13.2K

PnL

-$812.57

Record

46%

437-514 (951)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$9,021.39

Value

$10.1K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

50%

25098-24836 (49934)

RN1

Invested

$6,420.24

Value

$7.2K

PnL

+$743.39

Record

54%

56601-48769 (105370)

Lilybaeum

Invested

$2,217.14

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$28.65

Record

62%

13707-8571 (22278)

oieshfn345

Invested

$692.34

Value

$707.41

PnL

+$15.07

Record

57%

1719-1292 (3011)

UpTheBluesCTR

Yes

Invested

$862.84

Value

$660.43

PnL

-$202.42

Record

59%

45816-32172 (77988)

AnonymousUsername

Invested

$223.99

Value

$296.41

PnL

+$2.09

Record

74%

6673-2396 (9069)

kwzoCTR

Yes

Invested

$204.49

Value

$196.59

PnL

-$7.9

Record

46%

69-80 (149)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Invested

$88.3

Value

$86.59

PnL

-$1.71

Record

52%

13785-12588 (26373)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$46.41

Value

$64.66

PnL

+$18.25

Record

58%

18658-13715 (32373)

Betziko<$100

Invested

$67.35

Value

$64.12

PnL

-$3.22

Record

54%

6279-5320 (11599)

foooool<$100

Invested

$49.28

Value

$49.6

PnL

+$0.32

Record

50%

10864-10681 (21545)

torta.tech<$100

Invested

$30.8

Value

$30.6

PnL

-$0.2

Record

63%

8134-4874 (13008)

Cannae<$100

Invested

$12.24

Value

$12.07

PnL

-$0.17

Record

53%

15955-14130 (30085)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.38

Value

$5.28

PnL

-$0.1

Record

49%

19161-19553 (38714)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.97

Value

$5.18

PnL

-$1.8

Record

53%

4633-4164 (8797)

OddstormCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.72

Value

$3.79

PnL

+$0.07

Record

39%

418-667 (1085)

hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.41

Value

$2.41

PnL

+$0.04

Record

53%

2174-1925 (4099)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.14

Value

$1.54

PnL

-$0.61

Record

50%

33398-32968 (66366)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 79%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 19 top traders (53%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.3%

78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$24.51

Max Loss

-$100.00

124.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.