AFC Bournemouth vs. Leeds United FC: Both Teams to Score

9 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold No (53%) · No at 55¢ · $15K held · ended Oct 31

Yes45¢No55¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 53%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$14.9K

Combined PnL

$290.95

Smart Money Entry

45.2¢ → 55¢

+22% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 55%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 17 top traders (53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes45%

No55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$6.0K

Total Shares10,822

Combined PnL-$31.27

No9 traders

Total Value$8.1K

Total Shares17,287

Combined PnL+$322.22

Yes — 47%No — 53%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CORGIICTR	Yesavg 56¢	$5.2K	$5.1K	-$46.17	41% 394-565 (959)
AN AnonymousUsername	Noavg 44.7¢	$2.6K	$2.5K	-$68.04	74% 6673-2396 (9069)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 43.8¢	$1.2K	$1.5K	+$278.9	50% 33398-32968 (66366)
CA Cannae	Noavg 43.6¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$28.69	53% 15955-14130 (30085)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Noavg 48¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$75.2	51% 1446-1390 (2836)
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 46.7¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$136.47	59% 45816-32172 (77988)
0xheavy888ARB<$100	Yesavg 56.5¢	$702.31	$701.41	-$0.9	55% 7124-5713 (12837)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 56.5¢	$440.31	$440.41	+$0.1
└ No leg	Noavg 43.7¢	$262	$261	-$1
FO fooooolCTR	Yesavg 47.8¢	$502.52	$524.07	+$21.55	50% 10864-10681 (21545)
HRTradingCTR	Yesavg 55¢	$223.21	$218.83	-$4.38	53% 4633-4164 (8797)
DA darkumbreon88CTR	Yesavg 56¢	$140.1	$135.1	-$1.25	65% 1708-928 (2636)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 45¢	$78.3	$92.22	+$13.92	58% 28695-21181 (49876)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 44¢	$30.15	$36.32	+$6.17	57% 13805-10579 (24384)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Noavg 48.4¢	$32.86	$34.27	+$1.41	49% 12639-13031 (25670)
SH shiifooCTR<$100	Yesavg 51¢	$19.41	$18.26	-$1.14	60% 3351-2262 (5613)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	Noavg 45¢	$7.65	$7.57	-$0.08	54% 2988-2575 (5563)
US User7429CTR<$100	Yesavg 51¢	$6.6	$6.41	-$0.19	55% 8305-6697 (15002)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Yesavg 49¢	$5.43	$5.71	+$0.28	49% 7973-8309 (16282)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100	Yesavg 54¢	$2.86	$2.86	+$0.03	53% 2174-1925 (4099)

CORGIICTR

Yes

Invested

$5,170.73

Value

$5.1K

PnL

-$46.17

Record

41%

394-565 (959)

AnonymousUsername

Invested

$2,573.64

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$68.04

Record

74%

6673-2396 (9069)

SnakeBall

Invested

$1,193.81

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$278.9

Record

50%

33398-32968 (66366)

Cannae

Invested

$1,347.96

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$28.69

Record

53%

15955-14130 (30085)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Invested

$1,449.3

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$75.2

Record

51%

1446-1390 (2836)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$1,101.98

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$136.47

Record

59%

45816-32172 (77988)

0xheavy888ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$702.31

Value

$701.41

PnL

-$0.9

Record

55%

7124-5713 (12837)

Both legs:

Invested

$502.52

Value

$524.07

PnL

+$21.55

Record

50%

10864-10681 (21545)

HRTradingCTR

Yes

Invested

$223.21

Value

$218.83

PnL

-$4.38

Record

53%

4633-4164 (8797)

darkumbreon88CTR

Yes

Invested

$140.1

Value

$135.1

PnL

-$1.25

Record

65%

1708-928 (2636)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$78.3

Value

$92.22

PnL

+$13.92

Record

58%

28695-21181 (49876)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$30.15

Value

$36.32

PnL

+$6.17

Record

57%

13805-10579 (24384)

LuckyLoo<$100

Invested

$32.86

Value

$34.27

PnL

+$1.41

Record

49%

12639-13031 (25670)

shiifooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.41

Value

$18.26

PnL

-$1.14

Record

60%

3351-2262 (5613)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

Invested

$7.65

Value

$7.57

PnL

-$0.08

Record

54%

2988-2575 (5563)

User7429CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.6

Value

$6.41

PnL

-$0.19

Record

55%

8305-6697 (15002)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.43

Value

$5.71

PnL

+$0.28

Record

49%

7973-8309 (16282)

hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.86

Value

$2.86

PnL

+$0.03

Record

53%

2174-1925 (4099)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 55%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

9 of 17 top traders (53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.2%

55.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$74.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

174.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.