Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (55%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-10-31?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 46¢ · $211 held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$210.64
-$0.39
44.2¢ → 45.5¢
+3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 46%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 55%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR | Yesavg 44¢ | $30.36 | $145.8 | -$0.04 | 45% 670-829 (1499) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 45¢ | $31.5 | $31.5 | -$0.35 | 58% 28428-20989 (49417) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Noavg 54.5¢ | $29.19 | $29.21 | +$0.01 | 46% 8006-9466 (17472) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 45¢ | $3.15 | $3.15 | +$0 | 53% 15882-14070 (29952) |
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 45¢ | $0.98 | $0.98 | -$0.01 | 53% 2145-1905 (4050) |
Invested
$30.36
Value
$145.8
PnL
-$0.04
Record
45%
670-829 (1499)
Invested
$31.5
Value
$31.5
PnL
-$0.35
Record
58%
28428-20989 (49417)
Invested
$29.19
Value
$29.21
PnL
+$0.01
Record
46%
8006-9466 (17472)
Invested
$3.15
Value
$3.15
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
15882-14070 (29952)
Invested
$0.98
Value
$0.98
PnL
-$0.01
Record
53%
2145-1905 (4050)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.