Aston Villa FC vs. Fulham FC: O/U 6.5

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 100¢ · $487 held · ended Oct 31

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 75%

Total Value

$487.32

Combined PnL

-$108.25

Smart Money Entry

97¢ → 99.5¢

+3% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over1%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$481.04

Total Shares604

Combined PnL-$113.53

Over1 trader

Total Value$6.28

Total Shares36

Combined PnL+$5.27

Under — 75%Over — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 97¢	$547.55	$456.41	-$91.14	50% 25208-24935 (50143)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 97.4¢	$37.01	$19.38	-$17.63	58% 28788-21225 (50013)
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100	Overavg 2.8¢	$1.01	$6.28	+$5.27	62% 1159-704 (1863)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 97.3¢	$10.01	$5.25	-$4.76	57% 13860-10628 (24488)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$547.55

Value

$456.41

PnL

-$91.14

Record

50%

25208-24935 (50143)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$37.01

Value

$19.38

PnL

-$17.63

Record

58%

28788-21225 (50013)

lonmi2511CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.01

Value

$6.28

PnL

+$5.27

Record

62%

1159-704 (1863)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$10.01

Value

$5.25

PnL

-$4.76

Record

57%

13860-10628 (24488)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.