Aston Villa FC vs. Fulham FC: O/U 4.5
2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (25%) · Under at 96¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Under
8
Under 25%
$3.4K
$-1.2K
84¢ → 95.5¢
+14% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x127e88ca7f26b32be5ff2b005c5478cbd3833dd8 | Underavg 84¢ | $4.7K | $3.4K | $-1.2K | 66% 203-106 (309) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Overavg 10¢ | $13.03 | $13.68 | +$0.65 | 59% 10257-7240 (17497) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Overavg 16¢ | $5.6 | $13.48 | +$7.88 | 57% 13860-10628 (24488) |
HI hi774c<$100 | Underavg 82¢ | $5.01 | $5.29 | +$0.27 | 52% 4736-4456 (9192) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Overavg 17¢ | $1.19 | $2.7 | +$1.51 | 53% 4792-4312 (9104) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Overavg 7.4¢ | $2.16 | $2.2 | +$0.04 | 49% 12681-13099 (25780) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Overavg 5¢ | $0.8 | $0.88 | +$0.08 | 50% 25208-24935 (50143) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Overavg 12¢ | $0.6 | $0.35 | -$0.25 | 49% 8081-8480 (16561) |
Invested
$4,658.37
Value
$3.4K
PnL
$-1.2K
Record
66%
203-106 (309)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$13.03
Value
$13.68
PnL
+$0.65
Record
59%
10257-7240 (17497)
Invested
$5.6
Value
$13.48
PnL
+$7.88
Record
57%
13860-10628 (24488)
Invested
$5.01
Value
$5.29
PnL
+$0.27
Record
52%
4736-4456 (9192)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.19
Value
$2.7
PnL
+$1.51
Record
53%
4792-4312 (9104)
Invested
$2.16
Value
$2.2
PnL
+$0.04
Record
49%
12681-13099 (25780)
Invested
$0.8
Value
$0.88
PnL
+$0.08
Record
50%
25208-24935 (50143)
Invested
$0.6
Value
$0.35
PnL
-$0.25
Record
49%
8081-8480 (16561)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.