Aston Villa FC vs. Fulham FC: O/U 3.5
6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 85¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Under
9
Under 67%
$2.3K
$106.74
72.8¢ → 84.5¢
+16% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 85%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 75.4¢ | $853.84 | $945.01 | +$91.17 | 59% 45969-32302 (78271) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 71.4¢ | $582.21 | $644.21 | +$62 | 50% 25208-24935 (50143) |
FO foooool | Underavg 77.8¢ | $214.38 | $216.19 | +$1.81 | 50% 10919-10736 (21655) |
FO Forecastication2CTR | Overavg 34¢ | $251.26 | $199.53 | -$51.73 | 50% 7036-7035 (14071) |
AN Anon455 | Underavg 64¢ | $160 | $163.75 | +$3.75 | 55% 2937-2368 (5305) |
 0xheavy888 | Underavg 68¢ | $136 | $136 | +$0 | 55% 7136-5731 (12867) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Underavg 68¢ | $26.44 | $26.13 | -$0.31 | 57% 13860-10628 (24488) |
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100 | Overavg 35¢ | $9.84 | $9.83 | -$0 | 53% 2197-1937 (4134) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Overavg 31¢ | $1.55 | $1.6 | +$0.05 | 48% 2424-2645 (5069) |
Invested
$853.84
Value
$945.01
PnL
+$91.17
Record
59%
45969-32302 (78271)
Invested
$582.21
Value
$644.21
PnL
+$62
Record
50%
25208-24935 (50143)
Invested
$214.38
Value
$216.19
PnL
+$1.81
Record
50%
10919-10736 (21655)
Invested
$251.26
Value
$199.53
PnL
-$51.73
Record
50%
7036-7035 (14071)
Invested
$160
Value
$163.75
PnL
+$3.75
Record
55%
2937-2368 (5305)
0xheavy888Invested
$136
Value
$136
PnL
+$0
Record
55%
7136-5731 (12867)
Invested
$26.44
Value
$26.13
PnL
-$0.31
Record
57%
13860-10628 (24488)
Invested
$9.84
Value
$9.83
PnL
-$0
Record
53%
2197-1937 (4134)
Invested
$1.55
Value
$1.6
PnL
+$0.05
Record
48%
2424-2645 (5069)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.