Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (55%). 1 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Aston Villa FC vs. Fulham FC: O/U 2.5

1 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (13%) · Under at 46¢ · $53K held · ends Oct 31

Over55¢Under45¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 13%

Total Value

$53.3K

Combined PnL

$489.03

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 46%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

1 of 8 top traders (13%)Underdog side (market favors Over 55%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over55%

Under46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under1 trader

Total Value$41.9K

Total Shares92,000

Combined PnL+$506.96

Over7 traders

Total Value$11.4K

Total Shares20,957

Combined PnL-$17.93

Under — 13%Over — 87%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

14% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

sniperUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 86% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO hovistomaradonaCTR	Underavg 44.9¢	$41.4K	$41.9K	+$506.96	— 9-5 (14)
CA Cannae	Overavg 55¢	$4.3K	$4.2K	-$38.74	53% 15940-14117 (30057)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542	Overavg 54¢	$2.9K	$2.9K	+$26.97	47% 2498-2799 (5297)
HI hi774c	Overavg 54.5¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	-$1.62	52% 4728-4448 (9176)
AN AnonymousUsername	Overavg 54.5¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	-$0.12	74% 6661-2381 (9042)
OD Oddstorm	Overavg 55¢	$550	$545	-$5	39% 410-654 (1064)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Overavg 54¢	$41.04	$41.42	+$0.38	58% 28639-21134 (49773)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	Overavg 54¢	$22.14	$22.35	+$0.21	54% 2985-2572 (5557)

hovistomaradonaCTR

Under

Invested

$41,353.08

Value

$41.9K

PnL

+$506.96

Record

—

9-5 (14)

Cannae

Over

Invested

$4,278.98

Value

$4.2K

PnL

-$38.74

Record

53%

15940-14117 (30057)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542

Over

Invested

$2,912.76

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$26.97

Record

47%

2498-2799 (5297)

hi774c

Over

Invested

$1,860.02

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$1.62

Record

52%

4728-4448 (9176)

AnonymousUsername

Over

Invested

$1,774.55

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$0.12

Record

74%

6661-2381 (9042)

Oddstorm

Over

Invested

$550

Value

$545

PnL

-$5

Record

39%

410-654 (1064)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Over

Invested

$41.04

Value

$41.42

PnL

+$0.38

Record

58%

28639-21134 (49773)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

Over

Invested

$22.14

Value

$22.35

PnL

+$0.21

Record

54%

2985-2572 (5557)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 46%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

1 of 8 top traders (13%)Underdog side (market favors Over 55%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

14% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

sniperUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 86% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance47.7%

45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$109.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

209.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.