Aston Villa FC vs. Fulham FC: Aston Villa FC O/U 1.5
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (40%) · Under at 53¢ · $423 held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 40%
$422.54
$14.37
49.1¢ → 53¢
+8% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 53%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBall | Underavg 48.9¢ | $262.11 | $275.9 | +$13.79 | 50% 33354-32918 (66272) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR | Overavg 50¢ | $100 | $101 | +$1 | 49% 7902-8215 (16117) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 50.5¢ | $32.16 | $32.16 | -$0 | 53% 4546-4095 (8641) |
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100 | Overavg 50¢ | $9.4 | $9.12 | -$0.28 | 53% 2174-1925 (4099) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Overavg 50¢ | $4.5 | $4.37 | -$0.13 | 57% 13799-10572 (24371) |
Invested
$262.11
Value
$275.9
PnL
+$13.79
Record
50%
33354-32918 (66272)
Invested
$100
Value
$101
PnL
+$1
Record
49%
7902-8215 (16117)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$32.16
Value
$32.16
PnL
-$0
Record
53%
4546-4095 (8641)
Invested
$9.4
Value
$9.12
PnL
-$0.28
Record
53%
2174-1925 (4099)
Invested
$4.5
Value
$4.37
PnL
-$0.13
Record
57%
13799-10572 (24371)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.