Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5)
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Fulham FC (67%) · Fulham FC at 75¢ · $6K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Fulham FC
6
Fulham FC 67%
$5.7K
$149.58
73.3¢ → 75¢
+2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralFulham FC at 75%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Fulham FCavg 73.3¢ | $3.2K | $3.3K | +$75.68 | 50% 24855-24561 (49416) |
WO wollaoCTR | Aston Villa FCavg 26.5¢ | $2.0K | $2.1K | +$76.23 | 51% 18-17 (35) |
38 38791873984189 | Fulham FC | $284.86 | $284.86 | -$3.82 | 46% 7970-9410 (17380) |
CA Cannae<$100 | Fulham FCavg 73¢ | $58.6 | $59.8 | +$1.2 | 53% 15879-14069 (29948) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Fulham FCavg 73¢ | $42.34 | $43.21 | +$0.87 | 52% 3999-3641 (7640) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Aston Villa FCavg 26.5¢ | $15.49 | $14.91 | -$0.58 | 57% 13603-10423 (24026) |
Invested
$3,193.55
Value
$3.3K
PnL
+$75.68
Record
50%
24855-24561 (49416)
Invested
$1,999.99
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$76.23
Record
51%
18-17 (35)
Invested
$284.86
Value
$284.86
PnL
-$3.82
Record
46%
7970-9410 (17380)
Invested
$58.6
Value
$59.8
PnL
+$1.2
Record
53%
15879-14069 (29948)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$42.34
Value
$43.21
PnL
+$0.87
Record
52%
3999-3641 (7640)
Invested
$15.49
Value
$14.91
PnL
-$0.58
Record
57%
13603-10423 (24026)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
75.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.