Will Aston Villa FC vs. Fulham FC end in a draw?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 75¢ · $5K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 71%
$5.1K
$30.08
73.1¢ → 74.5¢
+2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 75%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989 | Noavg 73¢ | $2.9K | $2.9K | +$20 | 53% 5640-4979 (10619) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 73¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$7.37 | 50% 25208-24935 (50143) |
 0010001000001100 | Noavg 74¢ | $480.07 | $476.83 | -$3.24 | 65% 1361-734 (2095) |
DO DolphinBallerCTR | Yesavg 26¢ | $390 | $397.5 | +$7.5 | 48% 97-107 (204) |
AN AnonymousUsername<$100 | Noavg 73.5¢ | $52.08 | $85.72 | -$0.22 | 73% 6697-2416 (9113) |
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 27¢ | $83.92 | $82.44 | -$1.48 | 53% 2197-1937 (4134) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 73¢ | $21.9 | $22.05 | +$0.15 | 58% 28788-21225 (50013) |
Invested
$2,920
Value
$2.9K
PnL
+$20
Record
53%
5640-4979 (10619)
Invested
$1,075.58
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$7.37
Record
50%
25208-24935 (50143)
0010001000001100Invested
$480.07
Value
$476.83
PnL
-$3.24
Record
65%
1361-734 (2095)
Invested
$390
Value
$397.5
PnL
+$7.5
Record
48%
97-107 (204)
Invested
$52.08
Value
$85.72
PnL
-$0.22
Record
73%
6697-2416 (9113)
Invested
$83.92
Value
$82.44
PnL
-$1.48
Record
53%
2197-1937 (4134)
Invested
$21.9
Value
$22.05
PnL
+$0.15
Record
58%
28788-21225 (50013)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.