Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (51%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Aston Villa FC vs. Fulham FC: Both Teams to Score
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 50¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
1 arb excluded
$1.0K
-$58.13
48.7¢ → 49.5¢
+2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 51%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Noavg 55.2¢ | $522.74 | $454.56 | -$68.18 | 59% 45969-32302 (78271) |
 AgricultureSecretaryCTR | Noavg 41¢ | $308.97 | $316.51 | +$7.54 | 83% 3797-780 (4577) |
FO fooooolARB<$100 | Yesavg 46.1¢ | $205.78 | $232.1 | +$26.33 | 50% 10919-10736 (21655) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 46.1¢ | $150.45 | $178 | +$27.55 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 46.5¢ | $55.33 | $54.11 | -$1.22 | |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Noavg 42.4¢ | $20.45 | $22.16 | +$1.71 | 49% 8081-8480 (16561) |
LO lonmi2511<$100 | Yesavg 58¢ | $14.49 | $15.49 | +$1 | 62% 1159-704 (1863) |
 RN1<$100 | Yesavg 59¢ | $2.95 | $2.75 | -$0.2 | 54% 56681-48879 (105560) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 42¢ | $1.05 | $1.05 | +$0 | 53% 4792-4312 (9104) |
Invested
$522.74
Value
$454.56
PnL
-$68.18
Record
59%
45969-32302 (78271)
AgricultureSecretaryCTRInvested
$308.97
Value
$316.51
PnL
+$7.54
Record
83%
3797-780 (4577)
Invested
$205.78
Value
$232.1
PnL
+$26.33
Record
50%
10919-10736 (21655)
Both legs:
Invested
$20.45
Value
$22.16
PnL
+$1.71
Record
49%
8081-8480 (16561)
Invested
$14.49
Value
$15.49
PnL
+$1
Record
62%
1159-704 (1863)
RN1<$100Invested
$2.95
Value
$2.75
PnL
-$0.2
Record
54%
56681-48879 (105560)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.05
Value
$1.05
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
4792-4312 (9104)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.