Arsenal FC vs. Hull City AFC: O/U 2.5

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 64¢ · $48K held · ends Nov 7

Over64¢Under36¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

Total Value

$48.2K

Combined PnL

-$100.39

Smart Money Entry

63.8¢ → 63.5¢

+0% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 64%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over64%

Under37%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$40.9K

Total Shares64,399

Combined PnL-$195.73

Under5 traders

Total Value$7.3K

Total Shares19,971

Combined PnL+$95.34

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (7 on Under) disagree here.

whaleUnder 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrOver 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FE ferrariChampions2026	Overavg 64¢	$33.4K	$33.2K	-$257.74	42% 8104-11302 (19406)
HO hovistomaradona	Overavg 63¢	$12.0K	$7.6K	+$60	56% 18-14 (32)
ND ndb1CTR	Underavg 36¢	$6.6K	$6.7K	+$91.37	64% 1055-598 (1653)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Underavg 36¢	$455.06	$461.38	+$6.32	50% 28847-28660 (57507)
SE sentrioCTR	Underavg 37¢	$137.77	$135.91	-$1.86	50% 26296-25935 (52231)
VeryLucky888<$100	Overavg 62.4¢	$84.34	$86.46	+$2.12	58% 47334-34134 (81468)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 37¢	$19.58	$19.05	-$0.53	58% 21580-15650 (37230)
rayvanmechelen<$100	Overavg 65¢	$3.25	$3.2	-$0.13	53% 2667-2350 (5017)
DV dv-pm<$100	Overavg 63¢	$3.15	$3.18	+$0.03	48% 3363-3589 (6952)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Underavg 36¢	$3	$3.04	+$0.04	51% 6507-6271 (12778)

ferrariChampions2026

Over

Invested

$33,438.75

Value

$33.2K

PnL

-$257.74

Record

42%

8104-11302 (19406)

hovistomaradona

Over

Invested

$12,000

Value

$7.6K

PnL

+$60

Record

56%

18-14 (32)

ndb1CTR

Under

Invested

$6,578.29

Value

$6.7K

PnL

+$91.37

Record

64%

1055-598 (1653)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Under

Invested

$455.06

Value

$461.38

PnL

+$6.32

Record

50%

28847-28660 (57507)

sentrioCTR

Under

Invested

$137.77

Value

$135.91

PnL

-$1.86

Record

50%

26296-25935 (52231)

VeryLucky888<$100

Over

Invested

$84.34

Value

$86.46

PnL

+$2.12

Record

58%

47334-34134 (81468)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$19.58

Value

$19.05

PnL

-$0.53

Record

58%

21580-15650 (37230)

rayvanmechelen<$100

Over

Invested

$3.25

Value

$3.2

PnL

-$0.13

Record

53%

2667-2350 (5017)

dv-pm<$100

Over

Invested

$3.15

Value

$3.18

PnL

+$0.03

Record

48%

3363-3589 (6952)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Under

Invested

Value

$3.04

PnL

+$0.04

Record

51%

6507-6271 (12778)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 64%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (7 on Under) disagree here.

whaleUnder 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrOver 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.6%

63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$52.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

152.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.