Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Arsenal FC (55%) · Arsenal FC at 66¢ · $26K held · ends Nov 7

Arsenal FC66¢Hull City AFC34¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Arsenal FC

Consensus Traders

Arsenal FC 55%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$26.3K

Combined PnL

$6.1K

Smart Money Entry

66.1¢ → 65.5¢

-1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralArsenal FC at 66%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Arsenal FC

6 of 11 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Arsenal FC66%

Hull City AFC35%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Arsenal FC6 traders

Total Value$17.1K

Total Shares26,677

Combined PnL-$547.63

Hull City AFC5 traders

Total Value$8.3K

Total Shares23,965

Combined PnL+$6.7K

Arsenal FC — 55%Hull City AFC — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Arsenal FC. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleArsenal FC 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrArsenal FC 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Arsenal FC 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FE ferrariChampions2026	Arsenal FCavg 66.1¢	$17.4K	$16.8K	-$545.42	42% 8117-11313 (19430)
ND ndb1CTR	Hull City AFCavg 35¢	$85.5	$6.8K	+$6.8K	64% 1055-598 (1653)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Hull City AFCavg 34.9¢	$941.12	$951.94	+$10.82	50% 28880-28690 (57570)
└ Hull City AFC leg	Hull City AFCavg 34.9¢	$524.94	$519.25	-$5.69
└ Arsenal FC leg	Arsenal FCavg 63¢	$416.17	$432.69	+$16.51
VE VenusianCTR	Hull City AFCavg 36.1¢	$931.91	$889.69	-$42.23	49% 1807-1885 (3692)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Hull City AFCavg 36.1¢	$588.14	$569.63	-$18.51	48% 1742-1871 (3613)
SE sentrio	Arsenal FCavg 64¢	$104.63	$104.56	+$0.04	50% 26374-25995 (52369)
KA Kaczka<$100	Arsenal FCavg 67.1¢	$87.46	$85.35	-$2.11	51% 495-485 (980)
nigiri99<$100	Arsenal FCavg 65.2¢	$49.52	$48.64	-$0.38	46% 8761-10456 (19217)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Hull City AFCavg 36.1¢	$43.93	$42.55	-$1.38	49% 1765-1864 (3629)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Hull City AFCavg 34¢	$15.45	$15.91	+$0.45	51% 6508-6274 (12782)
GH ghorrock<$100	Arsenal FCavg 63¢	$13.03	$13.24	+$0.21	58% 21660-15754 (37414)
rayvanmechelen<$100	Arsenal FCavg 63¢	$5.18	$5.27	+$0.04	53% 2689-2368 (5057)

ferrariChampions2026

Arsenal FC

Invested

$17,365.81

Value

$16.8K

PnL

-$545.42

Record

42%

8117-11313 (19430)

ndb1CTR

Hull City AFC

Invested

$85.5

Value

$6.8K

PnL

+$6.8K

Record

64%

1055-598 (1653)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Hull City AFC

Invested

$941.12

Value

$951.94

PnL

+$10.82

Record

50%

28880-28690 (57570)

Both legs:

Hull City AFC$524.9434.9¢-$5.69

Arsenal FC$416.1763¢+$16.51

VenusianCTR

Hull City AFC

Invested

$931.91

Value

$889.69

PnL

-$42.23

Record

49%

1807-1885 (3692)

MadridTimeCTR

Hull City AFC

Invested

$588.14

Value

$569.63

PnL

-$18.51

Record

48%

1742-1871 (3613)

sentrio

Arsenal FC

Invested

$104.63

Value

$104.56

PnL

+$0.04

Record

50%

26374-25995 (52369)

Kaczka<$100

Arsenal FC

Invested

$87.46

Value

$85.35

PnL

-$2.11

Record

51%

495-485 (980)

nigiri99<$100

Arsenal FC

Invested

$49.52

Value

$48.64

PnL

-$0.38

Record

46%

8761-10456 (19217)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Hull City AFC

Invested

$43.93

Value

$42.55

PnL

-$1.38

Record

49%

1765-1864 (3629)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Hull City AFC

Invested

$15.45

Value

$15.91

PnL

+$0.45

Record

51%

6508-6274 (12782)

ghorrock<$100

Arsenal FC

Invested

$13.03

Value

$13.24

PnL

+$0.21

Record

58%

21660-15754 (37414)

rayvanmechelen<$100

Arsenal FC

Invested

$5.18

Value

$5.27

PnL

+$0.04

Record

53%

2689-2368 (5057)

Research grade

NeutralArsenal FC at 66%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Arsenal FC

6 of 11 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Arsenal FC. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleArsenal FC 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrArsenal FC 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Arsenal FC 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Arsenal FC wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance67.6%

65.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$47.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

147.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.