Will Hull City AFC win on 2026-11-07?
7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 96¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 78%
$5.4K
$8.86
95.4¢ → 95.7¢
+0% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+3 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 77%
Freshness
Late
69h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CA Cannae | Noavg 95.5¢ | $2.1K | $2.1K | +$2.43 | 53% 16908-15025 (31933) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 95.3¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$4.44 | 51% 37958-37206 (75164) |
AN AnonymousUsername | Noavg 95.2¢ | $790.99 | $794.35 | +$2.11 | 69% 7246-3212 (10458) |
GC GC-P | Noavg 95.6¢ | $559.9 | $559.8 | +$0.55 | 64% 10089-5690 (15779) |
NM NM-P | Noavg 95.6¢ | $506.47 | $506.99 | +$0.52 | 64% 10064-5621 (15685) |
OD Oddstorm | Noavg 95.3¢ | $157.65 | $157.63 | +$0.06 | 48% 7419-7957 (15376) |
DV dv-pmCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.5¢ | $34.38 | $33.23 | -$1.15 | 48% 3352-3568 (6920) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 95.3¢ | $14.59 | $14.64 | +$0.01 | 58% 21367-15500 (36867) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.4¢ | $5.95 | $5.91 | -$0.11 | 50% 26081-25734 (51815) |
Invested
$2,136.42
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$2.43
Record
53%
16908-15025 (31933)
Invested
$1,179.21
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$4.44
Record
51%
37958-37206 (75164)
Invested
$790.99
Value
$794.35
PnL
+$2.11
Record
69%
7246-3212 (10458)
Invested
$559.9
Value
$559.8
PnL
+$0.55
Record
64%
10089-5690 (15779)
Invested
$506.47
Value
$506.99
PnL
+$0.52
Record
64%
10064-5621 (15685)
Invested
$157.65
Value
$157.63
PnL
+$0.06
Record
48%
7419-7957 (15376)
Invested
$34.38
Value
$33.23
PnL
-$1.15
Record
48%
3352-3568 (6920)
Invested
$14.59
Value
$14.64
PnL
+$0.01
Record
58%
21367-15500 (36867)
Invested
$5.95
Value
$5.91
PnL
-$0.11
Record
50%
26081-25734 (51815)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.