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6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 97¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 7

Yes4¢No96¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

$1.79

Smart Money Entry

96.4¢ → 96.5¢

+0% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares2,093

Combined PnL+$2.76

Yes3 traders

Total Value$7.69

Total Shares221

Combined PnL-$0.97

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (7 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 96.4¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$0.74	51% 38177-37419 (75596)
NM NM-P	Noavg 96.4¢	$300.31	$300.75	+$0.45	64% 10175-5710 (15885)
GC GC-P	Noavg 96.4¢	$265.21	$265.57	+$0.36	64% 10173-5762 (15935)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 96¢	$190.8	$185.75	+$0.95	58% 47459-34244 (81703)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 96.5¢	$101.44	$98.07	+$0.2	48% 62365-67229 (129594)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 96¢	$16.58	$16.65	+$0.07	58% 21660-15754 (37414)
DV dv-pmCTR<$100	Yesavg 4¢	$6.69	$5.77	-$0.92	48% 3364-3589 (6953)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.8¢	$1.26	$1.2	-$0.06	50% 1821-1809 (3630)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.4¢	$0.68	$0.72	+$0.01	49% 14970-15869 (30839)

SnakeBall

Invested

$1,156.38

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$0.74

Record

51%

38177-37419 (75596)

NM-P

Invested

$300.31

Value

$300.75

PnL

+$0.45

Record

64%

10175-5710 (15885)

GC-P

Invested

$265.21

Value

$265.57

PnL

+$0.36

Record

64%

10173-5762 (15935)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$190.8

Value

$185.75

PnL

+$0.95

Record

58%

47459-34244 (81703)

38791873984189

Invested

$101.44

Value

$98.07

PnL

+$0.2

Record

48%

62365-67229 (129594)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$16.58

Value

$16.65

PnL

+$0.07

Record

58%

21660-15754 (37414)

dv-pmCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.69

Value

$5.77

PnL

-$0.92

Record

48%

3364-3589 (6953)

LimousinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.26

Value

$1.2

PnL

-$0.06

Record

50%

1821-1809 (3630)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.68

Value

$0.72

PnL

+$0.01

Record

49%

14970-15869 (30839)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (7 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.6%

96.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.44

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.