Will Arsenal FC vs. Hull City AFC end in a draw?
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 89¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 88%
$3.3K
-$146.72
89¢ → 88.5¢
-1% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 89%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 83%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 89.5¢ | $1.7K | $1.7K | -$19.07 | 50% 28862-28672 (57534) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 88¢ | $502.56 | $466.37 | +$2.65 | 58% 47408-34193 (81601) |
LI Limousin | Noavg 89.5¢ | $365.42 | $361.38 | -$4.04 | 50% 1808-1796 (3604) |
GC GC-P | Noavg 88¢ | $262.16 | $262.16 | +$0 | 64% 10165-5759 (15924) |
NM NM-P | Noavg 88¢ | $211.94 | $213.15 | +$1.2 | 64% 10163-5703 (15866) |
LI LightParadox | Noavg 89.5¢ | $176.33 | $173.4 | -$2.93 | 49% 1756-1850 (3606) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Yesavg 11.9¢ | $76.74 | $73.57 | -$124.61 | 48% 62298-67159 (129457) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 88¢ | $13.2 | $13.2 | +$0.08 | 58% 21639-15721 (37360) |
Invested
$1,724.7
Value
$1.7K
PnL
-$19.07
Record
50%
28862-28672 (57534)
VeryLucky888Invested
$502.56
Value
$466.37
PnL
+$2.65
Record
58%
47408-34193 (81601)
Invested
$365.42
Value
$361.38
PnL
-$4.04
Record
50%
1808-1796 (3604)
Invested
$262.16
Value
$262.16
PnL
+$0
Record
64%
10165-5759 (15924)
Invested
$211.94
Value
$213.15
PnL
+$1.2
Record
64%
10163-5703 (15866)
Invested
$176.33
Value
$173.4
PnL
-$2.93
Record
49%
1756-1850 (3606)
Invested
$76.74
Value
$73.57
PnL
-$124.61
Record
48%
62298-67159 (129457)
Invested
$13.2
Value
$13.2
PnL
+$0.08
Record
58%
21639-15721 (37360)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.