Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (95%). 5 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Boreham Wood FC win on 2026-10-27?
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 5.5¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 27
⚠️
Avoid
No
8
No 63%
$2.7K
-$356.33
54.2¢ → 5.5¢
-90% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 6%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 95%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 oieshfn345CTR | Noavg 56.5¢ | $2.0K | $1.6K | -$369.45 | 58% 1604-1185 (2789) |
AR ARocky33 | Yesavg 92¢ | $599.84 | $580.58 | -$19.26 | 76% 3882-1237 (5119) |
RO Rocky31 | Yesavg 92¢ | $246.57 | $238.53 | -$8.04 | 73% 1441-531 (1972) |
 RN1 | Yesavg 47.9¢ | $107.74 | $117 | +$9.26 | 54% 55386-47442 (102828) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Noavg 39.7¢ | $68.95 | $83.39 | +$14.44 | 58% 40458-29241 (69699) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Noavg 37.4¢ | $44.84 | $57.52 | +$12.68 | 50% 24148-23764 (47912) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 47.8¢ | $23.88 | $26.97 | +$3.1 | 54% 2639-2268 (4907) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Noavg 39¢ | $4.06 | $5 | +$0.94 | 49% 18442-18863 (37305) |
oieshfn345CTRInvested
$1,966.41
Value
$1.6K
PnL
-$369.45
Record
58%
1604-1185 (2789)
Invested
$599.84
Value
$580.58
PnL
-$19.26
Record
76%
3882-1237 (5119)
Invested
$246.57
Value
$238.53
PnL
-$8.04
Record
73%
1441-531 (1972)
RN1Invested
$107.74
Value
$117
PnL
+$9.26
Record
54%
55386-47442 (102828)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$68.95
Value
$83.39
PnL
+$14.44
Record
58%
40458-29241 (69699)
Invested
$44.84
Value
$57.52
PnL
+$12.68
Record
50%
24148-23764 (47912)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$23.88
Value
$26.97
PnL
+$3.1
Record
54%
2639-2268 (4907)
Invested
$4.06
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.94
Record
49%
18442-18863 (37305)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
5.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.