Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (77%). 1 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Solihull Moors FC win on 2026-10-27?
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (25%) · No at 24¢ · $550 held · ended Oct 27
⚠️
Avoid
No
4
No 25%
1 arb excluded
$550.31
$18.71
Research grade
AvoidNo at 24%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 77%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 oieshfn345ARB<$100 | Yesavg 71.2¢ | $396.09 | $282.05 | -$114.04 | 58% 1604-1185 (2789) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 71.2¢ | $222.72 | $151.81 | -$70.91 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 68.6¢ | $173.37 | $130.24 | -$43.13 | |
UP UpTheBlues | Yesavg 29.5¢ | $90.19 | $146.15 | +$55.96 | 59% 44322-30683 (75005) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 73¢ | $125.51 | $88.54 | -$36.96 | 58% 40458-29241 (69699) |
 RN1<$100 | Yesavg 68.2¢ | $27.3 | $19.4 | -$7.9 | 54% 55386-47442 (102828) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Yesavg 33¢ | $6.56 | $14.18 | +$7.62 | 54% 2639-2268 (4907) |
oieshfn345ARB<$100Invested
$396.09
Value
$282.05
PnL
-$114.04
Record
58%
1604-1185 (2789)
Both legs:
Invested
$90.19
Value
$146.15
PnL
+$55.96
Record
59%
44322-30683 (75005)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$125.51
Value
$88.54
PnL
-$36.96
Record
58%
40458-29241 (69699)
RN1<$100Invested
$27.3
Value
$19.4
PnL
-$7.9
Record
54%
55386-47442 (102828)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$6.56
Value
$14.18
PnL
+$7.62
Record
54%
2639-2268 (4907)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
23.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.