Solihull Moors FC vs. Kidderminster Harriers FC: O/U 4.5
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 64¢ · $82 held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 80%
$81.81
-$14.34
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 64%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Underavg 78¢ | $81.14 | $64.47 | -$16.67 | 59% 45819-32178 (77997) |
BE BetyourselfCTR<$100 | Overavg 45.6¢ | $7.27 | $7.27 | +$0 | 64% 2253-1263 (3516) |
RO Rocky31<$100 | Underavg 51¢ | $3.3 | $5.18 | +$1.88 | 74% 1592-569 (2161) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Underavg 55¢ | $3.27 | $3.62 | +$0.36 | 49% 7982-8322 (16304) |
 poshposh<$100 | Underavg 54¢ | $1.17 | $1.26 | +$0.09 | 59% 10191-7178 (17369) |
Invested
$81.14
Value
$64.47
PnL
-$16.67
Record
59%
45819-32178 (77997)
Invested
$7.27
Value
$7.27
PnL
+$0
Record
64%
2253-1263 (3516)
Invested
$3.3
Value
$5.18
PnL
+$1.88
Record
74%
1592-569 (2161)
Invested
$3.27
Value
$3.62
PnL
+$0.36
Record
49%
7982-8322 (16304)
poshposh<$100Invested
$1.17
Value
$1.26
PnL
+$0.09
Record
59%
10191-7178 (17369)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
64.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.