Will Solihull Moors FC win on 2026-10-31?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 52¢ · $292 held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 50%
$292.24
-$28.53
60.7¢ → 51.5¢
-15% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 52%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LE LeLynxMalynx | Noavg 61.6¢ | $145.9 | $123.24 | -$22.66 | 58% 28695-21181 (49876) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 61¢ | $122 | $104 | -$18 | 58% 41916-30432 (72348) |
BE BetzikoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 51.7¢ | $40.03 | $53.41 | +$13.38 | 54% 6279-5320 (11599) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 40.8¢ | $8.45 | $7.05 | -$1.4 | 49% 7973-8309 (16282) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Noavg 32.5¢ | $3.25 | $3.1 | -$0.15 | 59% 45816-32172 (77988) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 38¢ | $1.14 | $1.44 | +$0.3 | 53% 4633-4164 (8797) |
Invested
$145.9
Value
$123.24
PnL
-$22.66
Record
58%
28695-21181 (49876)
VeryLucky888Invested
$122
Value
$104
PnL
-$18
Record
58%
41916-30432 (72348)
Invested
$40.03
Value
$53.41
PnL
+$13.38
Record
54%
6279-5320 (11599)
Invested
$8.45
Value
$7.05
PnL
-$1.4
Record
49%
7973-8309 (16282)
Invested
$3.25
Value
$3.1
PnL
-$0.15
Record
59%
45816-32172 (77988)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.14
Value
$1.44
PnL
+$0.3
Record
53%
4633-4164 (8797)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.