Will Yeovil Town FC win on 2026-10-27?

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 66¢ · $683 held · ended Oct 27

Yes66¢No34¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$682.64

Combined PnL

$83.9

Smart Money Entry

39.4¢ → 65.5¢

+66% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 66%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 6 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes66%

No35%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$456.93

Total Shares927

Combined PnL+$88.59

No2 traders

Total Value$62.73

Total Shares103

Combined PnL-$4.68

Yes — 67%No — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Yesavg 39¢	$162.84	$203.53	+$40.68	50% 24148-23764 (47912)
VeryLucky888	Yesavg 39.5¢	$158	$196	+$38	58% 40458-29241 (69699)
oieshfn345ARB<$100	Noavg 28.1¢	$169.01	$162.98	-$6.03	58% 1604-1185 (2789)
└ No leg	Noavg 28.1¢	$152.89	$125.25	-$27.64
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 32.9¢	$16.12	$37.73	+$21.61
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Noavg 59¢	$54.69	$48.29	-$6.4	59% 44322-30683 (75005)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Yesavg 41¢	$33.62	$40.18	+$6.56	58% 27884-20523 (48407)
LO lonmi2511<$100	Yesavg 39.5¢	$13.89	$17.23	+$3.34	63% 1050-606 (1656)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 58.3¢	$12.72	$14.44	+$1.72	54% 2639-2268 (4907)

GoalLineGhost

Yes

Invested

$162.84

Value

$203.53

PnL

+$40.68

Record

50%

24148-23764 (47912)

VeryLucky888

Yes

Invested

$158

Value

$196

PnL

+$38

Record

58%

40458-29241 (69699)

oieshfn345ARB<$100

Invested

$169.01

Value

$162.98

PnL

-$6.03

Record

58%

1604-1185 (2789)

Both legs:

No$152.8928.1¢-$27.64

Yes$16.1232.9¢+$21.61

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Invested

$54.69

Value

$48.29

PnL

-$6.4

Record

59%

44322-30683 (75005)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Yes

Invested

$33.62

Value

$40.18

PnL

+$6.56

Record

58%

27884-20523 (48407)

lonmi2511<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.89

Value

$17.23

PnL

+$3.34

Record

63%

1050-606 (1656)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$12.72

Value

$14.44

PnL

+$1.72

Record

54%

2639-2268 (4907)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 66%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 6 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance67.6%

65.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$47.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

147.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.