Will Forest Green Rovers FC win on 2026-10-28?

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (43%) · Yes at 84¢ · $581 held · ended Oct 28

Yes84¢No16¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 43%

Total Value

$580.78

Combined PnL

$46.11

Smart Money Entry

63.1¢ → 83.5¢

+32% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 84%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes84%

No17%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$559.33

Total Shares574

Combined PnL+$54.44

No4 traders

Total Value$21.46

Total Shares66

Combined PnL-$8.33

Yes — 43%No — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
oieshfn345	Yesavg 63.1¢	$487.77	$547.48	+$56.95	57% 1626-1210 (2836)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Noavg 34.2¢	$19.25	$13.01	-$6.24	50% 24384-24001 (48385)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Yesavg 64¢	$9.6	$7.2	-$2.4	50% 12135-12341 (24476)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 37¢	$7.9	$5.04	-$2.86	53% 3098-2756 (5854)
TH thatsabing0<$100	Yesavg 65¢	$4.76	$4.65	-$0.11	93% 2978-234 (3212)
BE BetzikoCTR<$100	Noavg 37¢	$1.85	$2.6	+$0.75	54% 6053-5127 (11180)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Noavg 15¢	$0.78	$0.81	+$0.03	50% 32798-32351 (65149)

oieshfn345

Yes

Invested

$487.77

Value

$547.48

PnL

+$56.95

Record

57%

1626-1210 (2836)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Invested

$19.25

Value

$13.01

PnL

-$6.24

Record

50%

24384-24001 (48385)

LuckyLoo<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.6

Value

$7.2

PnL

-$2.4

Record

50%

12135-12341 (24476)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$7.9

Value

$5.04

PnL

-$2.86

Record

53%

3098-2756 (5854)

thatsabing0<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.76

Value

$4.65

PnL

-$0.11

Record

93%

2978-234 (3212)

BetzikoCTR<$100

Invested

$1.85

Value

$2.6

PnL

+$0.75

Record

54%

6053-5127 (11180)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Invested

$0.78

Value

$0.81

PnL

+$0.03

Record

50%

32798-32351 (65149)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 84%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.2%

83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$17.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

117.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.