Will Harrogate Town AFC win on 2026-10-28?

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (58%) · No at 97¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 28

Yes4¢No96¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 58%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.3K

Combined PnL

-$201.36

Smart Money Entry

61.4¢ → 96.5¢

+57% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 12 top traders (58%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$5.0K

Total Shares6,254

Combined PnL-$64.53

Yes5 traders

Total Value$135.91

Total Shares592

Combined PnL-$136.83

No — 58%Yes — 42%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
oieshfn345	Noavg 58.5¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	+$75.57	57% 1626-1210 (2836)
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 74¢	$1.9K	$1.8K	-$86.72	59% 44644-31046 (75690)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 57.5¢	$623.23	$497.32	-$125.91	50% 12135-12341 (24476)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 44.7¢	$434.88	$442.26	+$7.38	50% 24384-24001 (48385)
poshposhARB<$100	Noavg 65¢	$175.49	$150	-$25.5	60% 9402-6388 (15790)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 52¢	$78	$81.75	+$3.75
└ No leg	Noavg 65¢	$97.49	$68.25	-$29.25
RO Rocky31	Noavg 96¢	$112.43	$110.67	-$1.76	73% 1485-544 (2029)
BE Betziko	Noavg 46.2¢	$48.5	$100.27	+$51.77	54% 6053-5127 (11180)
AR ARocky33<$100	Noavg 68.8¢	$81.85	$96.99	+$15.14	76% 3927-1248 (5175)
RO Rocko33CTR<$100	Yesavg 35¢	$50	$69.29	+$19.29	64% 997-567 (1564)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Yesavg 40¢	$23.78	$32.69	+$8.92	59% 30106-20832 (50938)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Yesavg 54.9¢	$51.97	$17.5	-$34.47	49% 18625-19055 (37680)
RN1CTR	Yesavg 54.9¢	$137.26	$11.26	-$126	54% 55742-47837 (103579)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 15.9¢	$9.74	$5.18	-$4.56	53% 3098-2756 (5854)

oieshfn345

Invested

$1,906.7

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$75.57

Record

57%

1626-1210 (2836)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$1,852.13

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$86.72

Record

59%

44644-31046 (75690)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$623.23

Value

$497.32

PnL

-$125.91

Record

50%

12135-12341 (24476)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$434.88

Value

$442.26

PnL

+$7.38

Record

50%

24384-24001 (48385)

poshposhARB<$100

Invested

$175.49

Value

$150

PnL

-$25.5

Record

60%

9402-6388 (15790)

Both legs:

Yes$7852¢+$3.75

No$97.4965¢-$29.25

Rocky31

Invested

$112.43

Value

$110.67

PnL

-$1.76

Record

73%

1485-544 (2029)

Betziko

Invested

$48.5

Value

$100.27

PnL

+$51.77

Record

54%

6053-5127 (11180)

ARocky33<$100

Invested

$81.85

Value

$96.99

PnL

+$15.14

Record

76%

3927-1248 (5175)

Rocko33CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$50

Value

$69.29

PnL

+$19.29

Record

64%

997-567 (1564)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.78

Value

$32.69

PnL

+$8.92

Record

59%

30106-20832 (50938)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$51.97

Value

$17.5

PnL

-$34.47

Record

49%

18625-19055 (37680)

RN1CTR

Yes

Invested

$137.26

Value

$11.26

PnL

-$126

Record

54%

55742-47837 (103579)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.74

Value

$5.18

PnL

-$4.56

Record

53%

3098-2756 (5854)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 12 top traders (58%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.6%

96.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.44

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.