Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (87%). 5 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Carlisle United FC win on 2026-10-28?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 14¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 28

Yes87¢No13¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 56%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

-$253.58

Smart Money Entry

68.7¢ → 13.5¢

-80% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 14%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 87%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes87%

No14%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares1,976

Combined PnL-$256.1

Yes4 traders

Total Value$213.05

Total Shares841

Combined PnL+$2.52

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
oieshfn345CTR	Noavg 61.3¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$15.89	57% 1626-1210 (2836)
RN1CTR	Noavg 80.9¢	$589.07	$338.65	-$250.43	54% 55742-47837 (103579)
GO GoalLineGhost	Yesavg 19¢	$138.1	$141.79	+$3.7	50% 24384-24001 (48385)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Noavg 63.8¢	$273.51	$128.03	-$145.48	59% 44644-31046 (75690)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 42.7¢	$33.78	$66.03	+$32.25
└ No leg	Noavg 63.8¢	$239.73	$62	-$177.73
AR ARocky33<$100	Yesavg 89.3¢	$52.67	$50.45	-$2.23	76% 3927-1248 (5175)
RO Rocko33CTR<$100	Noavg 59¢	$50	$43.64	-$6.36	64% 997-567 (1564)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Noavg 70¢	$55.82	$41.07	-$14.75	59% 30106-20832 (50938)
RO Rocky31<$100	Yesavg 57¢	$14.25	$15.25	+$1	73% 1485-544 (2029)
BE Betziko<$100	Yesavg 18.3¢	$5.51	$5.56	+$0.05	54% 6053-5127 (11180)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 53.4¢	$5.07	$4.61	-$0.46	53% 3098-2756 (5854)

oieshfn345CTR

Invested

$1,180.02

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$15.89

Record

57%

1626-1210 (2836)

RN1CTR

Invested

$589.07

Value

$338.65

PnL

-$250.43

Record

54%

55742-47837 (103579)

GoalLineGhost

Yes

Invested

$138.1

Value

$141.79

PnL

+$3.7

Record

50%

24384-24001 (48385)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Invested

$273.51

Value

$128.03

PnL

-$145.48

Record

59%

44644-31046 (75690)

Both legs:

Yes$33.7842.7¢+$32.25

No$239.7363.8¢-$177.73

ARocky33<$100

Yes

Invested

$52.67

Value

$50.45

PnL

-$2.23

Record

76%

3927-1248 (5175)

Rocko33CTR<$100

Invested

$50

Value

$43.64

PnL

-$6.36

Record

64%

997-567 (1564)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Invested

$55.82

Value

$41.07

PnL

-$14.75

Record

59%

30106-20832 (50938)

Rocky31<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.25

Value

$15.25

PnL

+$1

Record

73%

1485-544 (2029)

Betziko<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.51

Value

$5.56

PnL

+$0.05

Record

54%

6053-5127 (11180)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$5.07

Value

$4.61

PnL

-$0.46

Record

53%

3098-2756 (5854)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 14%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 87%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance15.1%

13.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$561.38

Max Loss

-$100.00

661.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.