Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (92%). 2 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Gateshead FC win on 2026-10-27?
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 8.0¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 27
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
6
Yes 33%
$1.6K
-$433.15
47.2¢ → 8¢
-83% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 8%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors No 92%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 oieshfn345CTR | Yesavg 52.6¢ | $1.3K | $828.74 | -$460.67 | 58% 1604-1185 (2789) |
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542 | Noavg 82¢ | $343.67 | $341.58 | -$2.1 | 47% 2378-2648 (5026) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846 | Noavg 42¢ | $105.84 | $205.38 | +$99.54 | 59% 29949-20668 (50617) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Yesavg 32.6¢ | $166.15 | $94.16 | -$71.99 | 59% 44322-30683 (75005) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 82¢ | $82 | $81.5 | -$0.5 | 58% 40458-29241 (69699) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 51.8¢ | $23.18 | $25.74 | +$2.56 | 54% 2639-2268 (4907) |
oieshfn345CTRInvested
$1,289.4
Value
$828.74
PnL
-$460.67
Record
58%
1604-1185 (2789)
Invested
$343.67
Value
$341.58
PnL
-$2.1
Record
47%
2378-2648 (5026)
Invested
$105.84
Value
$205.38
PnL
+$99.54
Record
59%
29949-20668 (50617)
Invested
$166.15
Value
$94.16
PnL
-$71.99
Record
59%
44322-30683 (75005)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$82
Value
$81.5
PnL
-$0.5
Record
58%
40458-29241 (69699)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$23.18
Value
$25.74
PnL
+$2.56
Record
54%
2639-2268 (4907)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
8.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.