Will Altrincham FC win on 2026-10-27?

5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 70¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 27

Yes31¢No69¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 83%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.3K

Combined PnL

$238.03

Smart Money Entry

49.3¢ → 69.5¢

+41% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 70%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 6 top traders (83%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes31%

No70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,750

Combined PnL+$220.86

Yes1 trader

Total Value$120.25

Total Shares245

Combined PnL+$17.17

No — 83%Yes — 17%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
oieshfn345ARB<$100	Yesavg 47.9¢	$2.3K	$2.1K	-$282.66	58% 1604-1185 (2789)
└ No leg	Noavg 58.9¢	$1.1K	$1.4K	+$316.68
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 47.9¢	$1.2K	$627.92	-$599.34
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Noavg 47¢	$607.17	$846.16	+$238.99	59% 29949-20668 (50617)
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 57.1¢	$163.39	$146.27	-$17.12	59% 44322-30683 (75005)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Yesavg 42¢	$103.08	$120.25	+$17.17	49% 18442-18863 (37305)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 49¢	$43.24	$45	+$1.76	58% 40458-29241 (69699)
HRTradingARB<$100	Yesavg 38.5¢	$39.55	$43.09	+$3.54	54% 2639-2268 (4907)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 38.5¢	$21.83	$21.81	-$0.02
└ No leg	Noavg 51.2¢	$17.72	$21.28	+$3.56
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Noavg 57¢	$34.2	$30.6	-$3.6	50% 24148-23764 (47912)
poshposh<$100	Noavg 58¢	$15.98	$16.81	+$0.83	60% 9138-6084 (15222)

oieshfn345ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$2,348.15

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$282.66

Record

58%

1604-1185 (2789)

Both legs:

No$1,120.8858.9¢+$316.68

Yes$1,227.2747.9¢-$599.34

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Invested

$607.17

Value

$846.16

PnL

+$238.99

Record

59%

29949-20668 (50617)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$163.39

Value

$146.27

PnL

-$17.12

Record

59%

44322-30683 (75005)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Yes

Invested

$103.08

Value

$120.25

PnL

+$17.17

Record

49%

18442-18863 (37305)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$43.24

Value

$45

PnL

+$1.76

Record

58%

40458-29241 (69699)

HRTradingARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$39.55

Value

$43.09

PnL

+$3.54

Record

54%

2639-2268 (4907)

Both legs:

Yes$21.8338.5¢-$0.02

No$17.7251.2¢+$3.56

GoalLineGhost<$100

Invested

$34.2

Value

$30.6

PnL

-$3.6

Record

50%

24148-23764 (47912)

poshposh<$100

Invested

$15.98

Value

$16.81

PnL

+$0.83

Record

60%

9138-6084 (15222)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 70%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 6 top traders (83%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.5%

69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$39.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

139.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.