Will Emeka Egbuka have 1,000+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 81¢ · $666 held · ends Jan 27, 2027
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Neutral
No
3
No 67%
$665.54
$159.79
62.5¢ → 81¢
+30% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 81%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ND ndb1 | Noavg 60¢ | $252.5 | $405 | +$152.5 | 64% 1050-594 (1644) |
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR | Yesavg 9¢ | $109.92 | $220.85 | +$5.81 | 39% 319-504 (823) |
0X 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c<$100 | Noavg 87.9¢ | $38.21 | $39.69 | +$1.48 | 68% 740-356 (1096) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
81.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.