Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (64%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (71%) · Yes at 36¢ · $940 held · ends Nov 2
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
7
Yes 71%
$939.74
$24.74
31.7¢ → 36¢
+14% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 36%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors No 64%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DD dddtripsCTR | Yesavg 28.8¢ | $239.76 | $258.47 | +$27.05 | 38% 599-975 (1574) |
BI bipbipbop | Noavg 67.9¢ | $660.4 | $219.3 | -$29.91 | 64% 2389-1319 (3708) |
EL ElonSimpCTR | Yesavg 35¢ | $247.56 | $182.54 | +$3.58 | 34% 205-406 (611) |
 Kamenshyk22CTR | Yesavg 32.7¢ | $130.84 | $146.07 | +$15.23 | 20% 386-1555 (1941) |
TY Tysha<$100 | Noavg 64.1¢ | $59.93 | $59.35 | -$0.58 | 72% 8257-3139 (11396) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 33.7¢ | $84.7 | $44.27 | +$7.82 | 53% 6562-5775 (12337) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 34.3¢ | $37.08 | $29.73 | +$1.55 | 57% 13827-10598 (24425) |
Invested
$239.76
Value
$258.47
PnL
+$27.05
Record
38%
599-975 (1574)
Invested
$660.4
Value
$219.3
PnL
-$29.91
Record
64%
2389-1319 (3708)
Invested
$247.56
Value
$182.54
PnL
+$3.58
Record
34%
205-406 (611)
Kamenshyk22CTRInvested
$130.84
Value
$146.07
PnL
+$15.23
Record
20%
386-1555 (1941)
Invested
$59.93
Value
$59.35
PnL
-$0.58
Record
72%
8257-3139 (11396)
Invested
$84.7
Value
$44.27
PnL
+$7.82
Record
53%
6562-5775 (12337)
Invested
$37.08
Value
$29.73
PnL
+$1.55
Record
57%
13827-10598 (24425)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
36.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.