Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 90¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 2
⚠️
Avoid
No
5
No 80%
$3.1K
-$157.39
95.6¢ → 90¢
-6% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 90%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EL ElonSimp | Noavg 96.8¢ | $3.8K | $2.5K | -$227.5 | 34% 205-406 (611) |
BI bipbipbop | Noavg 93.5¢ | $383.6 | $193.44 | +$31.65 | 64% 2389-1319 (3708) |
TY Tysha | Noavg 78.8¢ | $135.79 | $159.76 | +$23.97 | 72% 8263-3139 (11402) |
GH ghorrock | Noavg 95.7¢ | $290.35 | $132.66 | -$14.9 | 57% 13860-10628 (24488) |
XZ xzsaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.2¢ | $6.85 | $71.21 | +$29.39 | 0% 0-24 (24) |
Invested
$3,776.52
Value
$2.5K
PnL
-$227.5
Record
34%
205-406 (611)
Invested
$383.6
Value
$193.44
PnL
+$31.65
Record
64%
2389-1319 (3708)
Invested
$135.79
Value
$159.76
PnL
+$23.97
Record
72%
8263-3139 (11402)
Invested
$290.35
Value
$132.66
PnL
-$14.9
Record
57%
13860-10628 (24488)
Invested
$6.85
Value
$71.21
PnL
+$29.39
Record
0%
0-24 (24)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.