Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 88¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 2

Yes12¢No88¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

-$59.89

Smart Money Entry

93¢ → 88.2¢

-5% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 88%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes12%

No88%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,444

Combined PnL-$81.74

Yes3 traders

Total Value$148.85

Total Shares1,970

Combined PnL+$21.85

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
EL ElonSimp	Noavg 93.3¢	$1.8K	$1.1K	-$80.17	34% 205-406 (611)
BI bipbipbopARB<$100	Noavg 88.1¢	$188.01	$114.04	+$11.02	64% 2389-1319 (3708)
└ No leg	Noavg 88.1¢	$90.66	$91.04	+$1.41
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 8.8¢	$17.6	$23	+$9.61
GH ghorrock	Noavg 90.4¢	$167.08	$83.1	-$1.27	57% 13827-10598 (24425)
XZ xzsaCTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$50.89	$73.24	+$22.35	0% 0-24 (24)
DD dddtripsCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.2¢	$64.11	$64.11	-$0	38% 599-975 (1574)
TY Tysha<$100	Noavg 89.1¢	$44.64	$44.34	-$0.3	72% 8257-3139 (11396)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 12¢	$12	$11.5	-$0.5	53% 6562-5775 (12337)

ElonSimp

Invested

$1,757.29

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$80.17

Record

34%

205-406 (611)

bipbipbopARB<$100

Invested

$188.01

Value

$114.04

PnL

+$11.02

Record

64%

2389-1319 (3708)

Both legs:

No$90.6688.1¢+$1.41

Yes$17.68.8¢+$9.61

ghorrock

Invested

$167.08

Value

$83.1

PnL

-$1.27

Record

57%

13827-10598 (24425)

xzsaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$50.89

Value

$73.24

PnL

+$22.35

Record

0-24 (24)

dddtripsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$64.11

Value

$64.11

PnL

-$0

Record

38%

599-975 (1574)

Tysha<$100

Invested

$44.64

Value

$44.34

PnL

-$0.3

Record

72%

8257-3139 (11396)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12

Value

$11.5

PnL

-$0.5

Record

53%

6562-5775 (12337)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 88%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.7%

88.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.51

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.