Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (70%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (71%) · Yes at 31¢ · $411 held · ends Nov 2
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
7
Yes 71%
$411.42
$108.79
15.5¢ → 30.5¢
+97% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 31%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors No 70%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 71%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DD dddtripsCTR | Yesavg 14¢ | $63.36 | $113.15 | +$49.78 | 38% 599-975 (1574) |
TY Tysha<$100 | Noavg 78.4¢ | $80.12 | $76.75 | -$3.37 | 72% 8263-3139 (11402) |
XZ xzsaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9¢ | $39.42 | $74.46 | +$35.04 | 0% 0-24 (24) |
 Kamenshyk22CTR<$100 | Yesavg 26.6¢ | $46.38 | $53.25 | +$6.87 | 20% 386-1555 (1941) |
BI bipbipbopCTR<$100 | Yesavg 20.5¢ | $77.26 | $47.75 | +$20.91 | 64% 2389-1319 (3708) |
EL ElonSimpCTR | Yesavg 26¢ | $396.62 | $27.88 | +$1.24 | 34% 205-406 (611) |
GH ghorrock | Noavg 75.6¢ | $126.91 | $18.19 | -$1.69 | 57% 13860-10628 (24488) |
Invested
$63.36
Value
$113.15
PnL
+$49.78
Record
38%
599-975 (1574)
Invested
$80.12
Value
$76.75
PnL
-$3.37
Record
72%
8263-3139 (11402)
Invested
$39.42
Value
$74.46
PnL
+$35.04
Record
0%
0-24 (24)
Kamenshyk22CTR<$100Invested
$46.38
Value
$53.25
PnL
+$6.87
Record
20%
386-1555 (1941)
Invested
$77.26
Value
$47.75
PnL
+$20.91
Record
64%
2389-1319 (3708)
Invested
$396.62
Value
$27.88
PnL
+$1.24
Record
34%
205-406 (611)
Invested
$126.91
Value
$18.19
PnL
-$1.69
Record
57%
13860-10628 (24488)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
30.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.