Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 100¢ · $492 held · ends Nov 6

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$491.94

Combined PnL

$4.53

Smart Money Entry

93.3¢ → 99.9¢

+7% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$477.87

Total Shares478

Combined PnL+$36.63

Yes4 traders

Total Value$14.07

Total Shares9,635

Combined PnL-$32.1

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Mature

39h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO northdrawer	Noavg 90.3¢	$284.3	$314.69	+$30.39	61% 14094-8978 (23072)
BI bipbipbop	Noavg 99.1¢	$2.6K	$83.83	-$3.75	64% 2426-1347 (3773)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 99.1¢	$59.51	$59.38	+$9.88	60% 10619-7212 (17831)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$19.86	$19.98	+$0.12	54% 21779-18820 (40599)
DD dddtripsCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.1¢	$31.02	$9.4	-$21.62	38% 605-1001 (1606)
XZ xzsaCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$6.46	$3.64	-$2.82	11% 4-32 (36)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$2.88	$0.76	-$2.11	20% 2358-9226 (11584)
WA WarriorHCTR	Yesavg 3.3¢	$551.5	$0.26	-$5.55	17% 1056-5089 (6145)

northdrawer

Invested

$284.3

Value

$314.69

PnL

+$30.39

Record

61%

14094-8978 (23072)

bipbipbop

Invested

$2,627.27

Value

$83.83

PnL

-$3.75

Record

64%

2426-1347 (3773)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$59.51

Value

$59.38

PnL

+$9.88

Record

60%

10619-7212 (17831)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$19.86

Value

$19.98

PnL

+$0.12

Record

54%

21779-18820 (40599)

dddtripsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$31.02

Value

$9.4

PnL

-$21.62

Record

38%

605-1001 (1606)

xzsaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.46

Value

$3.64

PnL

-$2.82

Record

11%

4-32 (36)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.88

Value

$0.76

PnL

-$2.11

Record

20%

2358-9226 (11584)

WarriorHCTR

Yes

Invested

$551.5

Value

$0.26

PnL

-$5.55

Record

17%

1056-5089 (6145)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Mature

39h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.