Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 100¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 6
⚠️
Avoid
No
8
No 63%
$1.3K
-$46.34
99.2¢ → 99.8¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 100%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 83%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BI bipbipbop | Noavg 98.9¢ | $2.2K | $760.31 | +$8.63 | 64% 2426-1347 (3773) |
NO northdrawer | Noavg 99.7¢ | $313.92 | $314.37 | +$0.45 | 61% 14094-8978 (23072) |
 balthazar | Noavg 99.6¢ | $149.27 | $149.62 | +$0.35 | 54% 26594-22226 (48820) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.3¢ | $59.62 | $59.32 | +$9.7 | 60% 10619-7212 (17831) |
DD dddtripsCTR | Yesavg 1.1¢ | $6.1K | $15.35 | -$53.09 | 38% 605-1001 (1606) |
E4 e46m3<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $8.99 | $9 | +$0.01 | 72% 12503-4935 (17438) |
XZ xzsaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $13.24 | $7.79 | -$5.45 | 11% 4-32 (36) |
WA WarriorHCTR | Yesavg 3.3¢ | $551.5 | $0.56 | -$6.94 | 17% 1056-5089 (6145) |
Invested
$2,238.38
Value
$760.31
PnL
+$8.63
Record
64%
2426-1347 (3773)
Invested
$313.92
Value
$314.37
PnL
+$0.45
Record
61%
14094-8978 (23072)
balthazarInvested
$149.27
Value
$149.62
PnL
+$0.35
Record
54%
26594-22226 (48820)
Invested
$59.62
Value
$59.32
PnL
+$9.7
Record
60%
10619-7212 (17831)
Invested
$6,139.85
Value
$15.35
PnL
-$53.09
Record
38%
605-1001 (1606)
Invested
$8.99
Value
$9
PnL
+$0.01
Record
72%
12503-4935 (17438)
Invested
$13.24
Value
$7.79
PnL
-$5.45
Record
11%
4-32 (36)
Invested
$551.5
Value
$0.56
PnL
-$6.94
Record
17%
1056-5089 (6145)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.