Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 99¢ · $382 held · ends Nov 6
⚠️
Avoid
No
6
No 33%
$381.6
-$24.6
81.7¢ → 99.4¢
+22% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 99%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-27 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
7h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NO northdrawer | Noavg 80.6¢ | $253.8 | $313.43 | +$59.63 | 61% 14123-9028 (23151) |
DD dddtripsCTR | Yesavg 1.9¢ | $116.76 | $30.41 | -$86.34 | 36% 605-1093 (1698) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.1¢ | $19.82 | $19.9 | +$0.08 | 54% 21790-18840 (40630) |
XZ xzsaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $11.36 | $15.01 | +$2.15 | 11% 4-32 (36) |
BI bipbipbopCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.5¢ | $2.32 | $2.75 | +$0.43 | 64% 2427-1348 (3775) |
12 123987456CTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.3¢ | $20 | $0.11 | -$0.56 | 43% 2054-2682 (4736) |
Invested
$253.8
Value
$313.43
PnL
+$59.63
Record
61%
14123-9028 (23151)
Invested
$116.76
Value
$30.41
PnL
-$86.34
Record
36%
605-1093 (1698)
Invested
$19.82
Value
$19.9
PnL
+$0.08
Record
54%
21790-18840 (40630)
Invested
$11.36
Value
$15.01
PnL
+$2.15
Record
11%
4-32 (36)
Invested
$2.32
Value
$2.75
PnL
+$0.43
Record
64%
2427-1348 (3775)
Invested
$20
Value
$0.11
PnL
-$0.56
Record
43%
2054-2682 (4736)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.