Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (98%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 2.4¢ · $467 held · ends Nov 6
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
6
Yes 67%
$466.73
-$137.74
3.4¢ → 2.4¢
-29% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 2%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 98%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+27 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Mature
16h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
4 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BI bipbipbop | Noavg 96.6¢ | $239.11 | $240.16 | +$1.05 | 64% 2438-1371 (3809) |
DD dddtripsCTR | Yesavg 3.5¢ | $277.73 | $167.99 | -$141.66 | 36% 607-1099 (1706) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 96.5¢ | $56.78 | $47.4 | +$0.31 | 57% 18305-13557 (31862) |
XZ xzsaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1¢ | $3.6 | $7.59 | +$4.16 | 11% 4-33 (37) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3¢ | $4.89 | $3.41 | -$1.47 | 20% 2455-9831 (12286) |
12 123987456CTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.3¢ | $0.3 | $0.18 | -$0.12 | 43% 2142-2793 (4935) |
Invested
$239.11
Value
$240.16
PnL
+$1.05
Record
64%
2438-1371 (3809)
Invested
$277.73
Value
$167.99
PnL
-$141.66
Record
36%
607-1099 (1706)
Invested
$56.78
Value
$47.4
PnL
+$0.31
Record
57%
18305-13557 (31862)
Invested
$3.6
Value
$7.59
PnL
+$4.16
Record
11%
4-33 (37)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$4.89
Value
$3.41
PnL
-$1.47
Record
20%
2455-9831 (12286)
Invested
$0.3
Value
$0.18
PnL
-$0.12
Record
43%
2142-2793 (4935)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
2.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.