Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 89¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 6

Yes12¢No88¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

-$2.75

Smart Money Entry

88.1¢ → 88.5¢

+0% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 89%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes12%

No89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,128

Combined PnL-$6.05

Yes2 traders

Total Value$5.4

Total Shares43

Combined PnL+$3.29

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI bipbipbop	Noavg 88.2¢	$620.75	$622.89	+$2.14	64% 2374-1317 (3691)
Istaroth	Noavg 87.9¢	$432.32	$424.01	-$8.19	21% 300-1148 (1448)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 3¢	$1.05	$4.39	+$3.33	18% 527-2364 (2891)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100	Yesavg 13¢	$1.05	$1.01	-$0.04	76% 11179-3442 (14621)

bipbipbop

Invested

$620.75

Value

$622.89

PnL

+$2.14

Record

64%

2374-1317 (3691)

Istaroth

Invested

$432.32

Value

$424.01

PnL

-$8.19

Record

21%

300-1148 (1448)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.05

Value

$4.39

PnL

+$3.33

Record

18%

527-2364 (2891)

Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.05

Value

$1.01

PnL

-$0.04

Record

76%

11179-3442 (14621)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 89%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.0%

88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.