Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 92¢ · $869 held · ends Nov 6

Yes9¢No91¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$868.89

Combined PnL

$23.77

Smart Money Entry

88.4¢ → 91.5¢

+4% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 92%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes9%

No92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$867.62

Total Shares911

Combined PnL+$23.55

Yes1 trader

Total Value$1.27

Total Shares9

Combined PnL+$0.22

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI bipbipbop	Noavg 89.1¢	$741.41	$606.35	+$18.24	64% 2374-1317 (3691)
Istaroth	Noavg 86¢	$208.16	$206.04	-$1.05	21% 300-1148 (1448)
LornaPredicts<$100	Noavg 89¢	$35.36	$41.67	+$6.31	18% 527-2364 (2891)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 86¢	$13.5	$13.56	+$0.05	57% 13603-10423 (24026)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100	Yesavg 12¢	$1.05	$1.27	+$0.22	76% 11179-3442 (14621)

bipbipbop

Invested

$741.41

Value

$606.35

PnL

+$18.24

Record

64%

2374-1317 (3691)

Istaroth

Invested

$208.16

Value

$206.04

PnL

-$1.05

Record

21%

300-1148 (1448)

LornaPredicts<$100

Invested

$35.36

Value

$41.67

PnL

+$6.31

Record

18%

527-2364 (2891)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$13.5

Value

$13.56

PnL

+$0.05

Record

57%

13603-10423 (24026)

Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.05

Value

$1.27

PnL

+$0.22

Record

76%

11179-3442 (14621)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 92%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.8%

91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.70

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.