Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 97¢ · $520 held · ends Nov 6
⚠️
Avoid
No
6
No 50%
$520.17
$50.03
94.2¢ → 96.8¢
+3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 97%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-30 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Late
59h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NO northdrawer | Noavg 94.1¢ | $296.5 | $296.42 | -$0.08 | 61% 14123-9028 (23151) |
GH ghorrock | Noavg 94.4¢ | $241.11 | $107.68 | +$6.1 | 57% 17612-13142 (30754) |
BI bipbipbopCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4¢ | $94.65 | $58.32 | +$35.31 | 64% 2427-1348 (3775) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.3¢ | $19.56 | $37.78 | +$8.44 | 20% 2360-9245 (11605) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 95.2¢ | $19.04 | $18.82 | -$0.22 | 54% 21790-18840 (40630) |
12 123987456CTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.3¢ | $20 | $1.15 | +$0.48 | 43% 2054-2682 (4736) |
Invested
$296.5
Value
$296.42
PnL
-$0.08
Record
61%
14123-9028 (23151)
Invested
$241.11
Value
$107.68
PnL
+$6.1
Record
57%
17612-13142 (30754)
Invested
$94.65
Value
$58.32
PnL
+$35.31
Record
64%
2427-1348 (3775)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$19.56
Value
$37.78
PnL
+$8.44
Record
20%
2360-9245 (11605)
Invested
$19.04
Value
$18.82
PnL
-$0.22
Record
54%
21790-18840 (40630)
Invested
$20
Value
$1.15
PnL
+$0.48
Record
43%
2054-2682 (4736)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.