Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (86%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 14¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 31
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
6
Yes 67%
1 arb excluded
$2.0K
$363.89
40.1¢ → 14.5¢
-64% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 14%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 86%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DD dddtripsCTR | Yesavg 40¢ | $800 | $920 | +$120 | 38% 598-969 (1567) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Noavg 60.8¢ | $883.21 | $760.4 | +$238.32 | 53% 6459-5657 (12116) |
 Kamenshyk22CTR | Yesavg 43.2¢ | $129.6 | $138.11 | +$7.01 | 20% 385-1545 (1930) |
BI bipbipbopARB<$100 | Yesavg 20.4¢ | $557.27 | $64.17 | +$14.12 | 64% 2370-1317 (3687) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 20.4¢ | $59.49 | $43.82 | -$7.8 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 58.5¢ | $14.02 | $20.35 | +$21.91 | |
 LornaPredicts<$100 | Noavg 85¢ | $42.5 | $42 | -$0.5 | 18% 525-2348 (2873) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100 | Yesavg 46¢ | $15.66 | $15.66 | -$0 | 32% 4390-9443 (13833) |
HE HerrieDavisCTR<$100 | Yesavg 22.8¢ | $12.03 | $11.1 | -$0.93 | 36% 2037-3642 (5679) |
Invested
$800
Value
$920
PnL
+$120
Record
38%
598-969 (1567)
Invested
$883.21
Value
$760.4
PnL
+$238.32
Record
53%
6459-5657 (12116)
Kamenshyk22CTRInvested
$129.6
Value
$138.11
PnL
+$7.01
Record
20%
385-1545 (1930)
Invested
$557.27
Value
$64.17
PnL
+$14.12
Record
64%
2370-1317 (3687)
Both legs:
LornaPredicts<$100Invested
$42.5
Value
$42
PnL
-$0.5
Record
18%
525-2348 (2873)
Invested
$15.66
Value
$15.66
PnL
-$0
Record
32%
4390-9443 (13833)
Invested
$12.03
Value
$11.1
PnL
-$0.93
Record
36%
2037-3642 (5679)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
14.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.