Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 99¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 31
⚠️
Avoid
No
6
No 67%
$3.1K
$5.77
98.8¢ → 99.4¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 99%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EL ElonSimp | Noavg 99¢ | $2.5K | $1.4K | +$3.87 | 34% 203-400 (603) |
ON onekey02 | Noavg 98.5¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$3.27 | 98% 408-10 (418) |
BI bipbipbop | Noavg 98.8¢ | $1.6K | $638.19 | +$3.01 | 64% 2376-1317 (3693) |
PO poposub<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $21.26 | $19.99 | -$1.26 | 46% 2053-2452 (4505) |
XZ xzsaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $0.09 | $1.28 | +$1.19 | — |
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100 | Yesavg 10¢ | $5.07 | $0.76 | -$4.31 | — |
Invested
$2,485.48
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$3.87
Record
34%
203-400 (603)
Invested
$1,072.84
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$3.27
Record
98%
408-10 (418)
Invested
$1,574.94
Value
$638.19
PnL
+$3.01
Record
64%
2376-1317 (3693)
Invested
$21.26
Value
$19.99
PnL
-$1.26
Record
46%
2053-2452 (4505)
Invested
$0.09
Value
$1.28
PnL
+$1.19
Record
—
Invested
$5.07
Value
$0.76
PnL
-$4.31
Record
—
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.