Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 92¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 31

Yes8¢No92¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

-$68.4

Smart Money Entry

94.2¢ → 92.1¢

-2% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 92%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes8%

No92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares2,035

Combined PnL-$93.08

Yes2 traders

Total Value$75.52

Total Shares1,095

Combined PnL+$24.68

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
EL ElonSimp	Noavg 94.2¢	$3.1K	$1.9K	-$93.14	34% 203-400 (603)
BI bipbipbopARB<$100	Noavg 98.1¢	$1.1K	$284.17	+$131.16	64% 2374-1317 (3691)
└ No leg	Noavg 98.1¢	$196.15	$183.7	-$3.66
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 4.6¢	$57.07	$100.47	+$134.82
CF 0xcfa9...a5d3CTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$44.01	$61.61	+$17.6	—
PO poposub<$100	Noavg 92.2¢	$20.02	$20.07	+$0.06	46% 2053-2452 (4505)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.4¢	$8.13	$13.91	+$7.08	53% 6484-5687 (12171)

ElonSimp

Invested

$3,060.08

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$93.14

Record

34%

203-400 (603)

bipbipbopARB<$100

Invested

$1,141.54

Value

$284.17

PnL

+$131.16

Record

64%

2374-1317 (3691)

Both legs:

No$196.1598.1¢-$3.66

Yes$57.074.6¢+$134.82

0xcfa9...a5d3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$44.01

Value

$61.61

PnL

+$17.6

Record

—

poposub<$100

Invested

$20.02

Value

$20.07

PnL

+$0.06

Record

46%

2053-2452 (4505)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.13

Value

$13.91

PnL

+$7.08

Record

53%

6484-5687 (12171)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 92%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.4%

92.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.