Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (69%). 4 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 31¢ · $10K held · ends Oct 31
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
4
Yes 100%
1 arb excluded
$10.4K
$9.3K
1.4¢ → 31.4¢
+2223% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 31%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XZ xzsaCTR | Yesavg 1¢ | $213.58 | $9.7K | +$9.5K | — |
BI bipbipbopARB<$100 | Noavg 65.4¢ | $3.0K | $533 | +$55.9 | 64% 2376-1317 (3693) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 65.4¢ | $389.63 | $410.59 | -$66.85 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $35.74 | $122.41 | +$122.75 | |
EL ElonSimpCTR | Yesavg 32.5¢ | $1.9K | $45.41 | -$267.52 | 34% 203-400 (603) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR | Yesavg 26.3¢ | $354.13 | $25.21 | +$27.01 | 53% 6490-5699 (12189) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 40¢ | $2 | $1.69 | -$0.31 | 18% 530-2380 (2910) |
Invested
$213.58
Value
$9.7K
PnL
+$9.5K
Record
—
Invested
$2,951.95
Value
$533
PnL
+$55.9
Record
64%
2376-1317 (3693)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,884.46
Value
$45.41
PnL
-$267.52
Record
34%
203-400 (603)
Invested
$354.13
Value
$25.21
PnL
+$27.01
Record
53%
6490-5699 (12189)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$2
Value
$1.69
PnL
-$0.31
Record
18%
530-2380 (2910)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
31.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.