Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (52%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 48¢ · $6K held · ends Oct 31
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$5.7K
$3.6K
9.9¢ → 48.3¢
+388% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 48%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 52%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XZ xzsaCTR | Yesavg 3.1¢ | $331.2 | $3.4K | +$3.1K | — |
EL ElonSimpCTR | Yesavg 37.3¢ | $921.1 | $1.0K | +$231.39 | 34% 203-400 (603) |
BI bipbipbopCTR | Yesavg 15.7¢ | $986.62 | $623.79 | +$292.61 | 64% 2376-1317 (3693) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271 | Noavg 66.9¢ | $541.27 | $545.72 | +$4.45 | 32% 4410-9476 (13886) |
 Kamenshyk22CTR | Yesavg 38.9¢ | $135.03 | $74.84 | -$13.02 | 20% 385-1549 (1934) |
Invested
$331.2
Value
$3.4K
PnL
+$3.1K
Record
—
Invested
$921.1
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$231.39
Record
34%
203-400 (603)
Invested
$986.62
Value
$623.79
PnL
+$292.61
Record
64%
2376-1317 (3693)
Invested
$541.27
Value
$545.72
PnL
+$4.45
Record
32%
4410-9476 (13886)
Kamenshyk22CTRInvested
$135.03
Value
$74.84
PnL
-$13.02
Record
20%
385-1549 (1934)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.