Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 26 to October 28, 2026?

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 100¢ · $5K held · ends Oct 28

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$4.6K

Combined PnL

$23.11

Smart Money Entry

99¢ → 99.9¢

+1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$4.6K

Total Shares4,569

Combined PnL+$28.68

Yes1 trader

Total Value$1.13

Total Shares751

Combined PnL-$5.57

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ON onekey02	Noavg 99.8¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	+$1.18	98% 405-10 (415)
BI bipbipbop	Noavg 98.2¢	$3.0K	$2.2K	+$28.32	64% 2361-1315 (3676)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$10.41	$9.59	-$0.82	32% 4329-9310 (13639)
EL ElonSimpCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$15.34	$1.13	-$5.57	34% 200-394 (594)

onekey02

Invested

$2,363.82

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$1.18

Record

98%

405-10 (415)

bipbipbop

Invested

$2,970.32

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$28.32

Record

64%

2361-1315 (3676)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$10.41

Value

$9.59

PnL

-$0.82

Record

32%

4329-9310 (13639)

ElonSimpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.34

Value

$1.13

PnL

-$5.57

Record

34%

200-394 (594)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.