Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (79%). 1 of 1 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?
Positions of the top Polymarket traders in this market · ends Oct 30
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
1
Yes 100%
1 arb excluded
$1.6K
$156.98
Research grade
AvoidYes at 21%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 1 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 79%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BI bipbipbopARB<$100 | Noavg 81.6¢ | $2.2K | $1.1K | +$19.97 | 64% 2361-1315 (3676) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 81.6¢ | $809.14 | $783.38 | -$7.15 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 19.4¢ | $312.53 | $337.59 | +$27.12 | |
DD dddtripsCTR | Yesavg 14.6¢ | $292.92 | $449.9 | +$156.98 | 38% 597-965 (1562) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
21.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.