Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 90¢ · $6K held · ends Oct 30
⚠️
Avoid
No
5
No 80%
$5.9K
-$197.42
92.7¢ → 90¢
-3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 90%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BI bipbipbop | Noavg 89.7¢ | $7.4K | $3.1K | +$75.49 | 64% 2367-1317 (3684) |
EL ElonSimp | Noavg 95.9¢ | $5.2K | $2.7K | -$253.49 | 34% 201-398 (599) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 88.2¢ | $44.03 | $36.03 | +$1.1 | 57% 13241-10089 (23330) |
 Kamenshyk22CTR<$100 | Yesavg 10.9¢ | $41.05 | $20.73 | -$20.32 | 20% 385-1544 (1929) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Noavg 91¢ | $172.57 | $5.04 | -$0.19 | 53% 6367-5579 (11946) |
Invested
$7,425.65
Value
$3.1K
PnL
+$75.49
Record
64%
2367-1317 (3684)
Invested
$5,177.32
Value
$2.7K
PnL
-$253.49
Record
34%
201-398 (599)
Invested
$44.03
Value
$36.03
PnL
+$1.1
Record
57%
13241-10089 (23330)
Kamenshyk22CTR<$100Invested
$41.05
Value
$20.73
PnL
-$20.32
Record
20%
385-1544 (1929)
Invested
$172.57
Value
$5.04
PnL
-$0.19
Record
53%
6367-5579 (11946)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.